The Fate of Lü Gengsong and China’s Road to Democracy
Hope in the Shadow of Tyranny
作者：张致君 编辑：罗志飞 责任编辑：鲁慧文
2025年初，中国著名民主人士、前浙江大学讲师吕耿松被当局“释放”。然而这并非真正意义上的自由，而是从监狱转入监视居住——一种变相的软禁制度。他被禁止与外界自由联系、限制行动范围、随时被秘密警察盘查、居所装有监控设备，几乎等同于家庭监狱。这位年逾古稀的异议知识分子，至今仍承受着来自极权制度的持续打压，成为中共处理政治犯“宽严相济”伪善策略的缩影。
吕耿松的命运，是中国数以千计政治犯、异议者命运的缩影。而正是这些人的不屈抗争，构成了中国未来民主转型的火种。中共对异议者的系统性镇压，也无法将中国走向民主的可能路径全部清除。
吕耿松1956年出生于浙江，毕业于杭州大学历史系。1983年，他成为浙江公安高等专科学校的讲师，教授中国近现代史。然而，随着他对现实政治的不满和对民主自由理念的信仰日渐坚定，吕耿松开始撰写批评中共专制、呼吁政改的文章，成为中国最早一批“网上自由撰稿人”。
他是《中国冤案选》一书的作者，长期关注因冤狱、强拆、腐败、非法拘押等问题受害的底层民众，写作风格犀利、真实，受到众多访民和维权人士的敬重。与此同时，他也因言获罪，屡次被拘捕：2008年，因“煽动颠覆国家政权罪”被判处4年徒刑；2015年，再次以“颠覆国家政权罪”被判处11年。
吕耿松长期以来是中国民主党的重要成员，主张多党制、新闻自由、司法独立，反对一党专政。他的理念与个人实践体现了一名知识分子对国家前途命运的深刻忧思和实践意志。
在中共治下，任何挑战其政权合法性或要求制度变革的声音，都会被迅速打压。从“六四”之后的持续清洗，到近年来“709大抓捕”“良心犯判重刑”“网络言论跨省抓人”，中共构建了一整套严密的打压体系。
中共惯常以“颠覆国家政权罪”、“煽动颠覆罪”、“寻衅滋事”等罪名打压异议人士，这些罪名的界定含糊、弹性极大，成为言论控制的工具。吕耿松案中，他仅因发表文章、接受采访、参与民主党活动便被以“颠覆罪”重判。类似案例还有许志永、郭飞雄、秦永敏等人。
大量政治犯出狱后，并未恢复人身自由，而是被置于监视居住、定点“旅居”、非法拘禁的状态。吕耿松即是其典型代表。此类做法在法律上毫无法律授权，却在现实中普遍存在。政治犯的家属往往也遭受威胁、骚扰甚至拘禁。例如李明哲案中，其妻子李净瑜在台湾奔走呼吁遭中共攻击。与此同时，中共通过网络审查封杀异议声音，打击国外媒体和NGO，构筑起“数字长城”和信息孤岛。
尽管如此，中共对政治异议实行极权式打压，但中国社会内部对民主、法治、公平的追求并未熄灭，甚至在高压中不断积聚动能。
近年来，维权律师、独立记者、环保志愿者、宗教群体等非体制内力量不断壮大。他们虽非传统意义上的政治反对派，却为争取自身权益而觉醒，逐步形成民间公民意识。
这些群体虽分散、被打压，但其存在本身意味着制度无法涵盖所有社会诉求。任何民主变革的基础，都必须建立在这类公民社会的土壤之上。
海外民主阵线的延续与重组在进一步推动中国民主化中也逐渐取得重要地位，如中国民主党、对华援助协会、“人道中国”等海外团体不断发声，揭露人权迫害，推动国际社会关注。同时，香港、新疆、西藏的自由抗争也与中国大陆的民主运动形成联动效应。海外团体在国际间建立了舆论声势和组织基础，是未来政治巨变中不可忽视的推力。
最为重要的是，尽管中国网络高度审查，但新一代年轻人依然通过VPN、加密通信、微博暗语等方式获取信息，数字抗争成为对抗极权的前沿阵地。像吕耿松那样的“网上发声者”，正是新型自由表达的先行者。
虽然中国是否、何时走向民主，仍存在极大不确定性，但历史的趋势总是由无数微小而顽强的力量推动。类似1980年代的“政改派”模式——在权力内部出现愿意推动政治松动的力量。但这一路径如今希望渺茫，习近平集权后对改革派全面清洗，朝鲜化趋势日益明显。
但若中国发生严重经济危机、权力更替或社会动荡，可能迫使执政集团妥协或改组政体。这种情况通常出现在重大转折点，如苏联解体、阿拉伯之春等。而中国近年来房地产危机、青年失业、高债务问题已显端倪，未来十年或是观察关键期。
同时在公民社会长期积累下，一旦爆发足够广泛的群众动员（如全国性抗议、工潮、大学生觉醒等），可能形成非暴力变革力量，“白纸革命”、“铁链女事件”已显现社会裂痕。中共对群体事件的紧张度也更加证实了他们的恐惧。
吕耿松并非孤独的斗士，在如今的政治机遇下，他身后有成千上万的无名者，在城市角落、网络深处、监狱高墙内，为自由、正义与尊严抗争。他们不是生来政治，而是因为压迫被迫走上抗争之路。他们的存在提醒我们，极权永远无法驯服思想，永不放弃。
中国的民主之路将是崎岖、漫长、曲折的，但正如前南非总统曼德拉所言：“我漫长的跋涉尚未结束，自由的晨曦依旧在前方。”，在吕耿松和所有政治犯身上，我们看见了这个国家灵魂的光辉。
那光微弱却坚定，将指引中国走出专制的长夜，迎向自由的曙光。
张致君
写于吕耿松释放日
2025年7月
The Fate of Lü Gengsong and China’s Road to Democracy Hope in the Shadow of Tyranny
By Zhang Zhijun Edited by Luo Zhifei Chief Editor: Lu Huiwen Translator: Lu Huiwen
In early 2025, prominent Chinese democracy activist and former Zhejiang University lecturer Lü Gengsong was officially “released” by the authorities. But this was not freedom in any real sense—only a transfer from prison to residential surveillance, a de facto house arrest. He is forbidden from contacting the outside world freely, his movements are tightly restricted, he is subject to random inspections by state security, and his home is equipped with surveillance devices. For this septuagenarian dissident intellectual, the oppression has not ended—it has merely changed form. Lü Gengsong’s continued persecution is emblematic of the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) hypocritical policy of “controlled leniency” toward political prisoners.
Lü’s fate mirrors that of thousands of political prisoners and dissidents in China. And it is precisely their unyielding resistance that keeps alive the spark of democratic transformation. The CCP’s systematic crackdown on dissent cannot eliminate the potential paths to democracy.
A Scholar Turned Dissident
Born in 1956 in Zhejiang Province, Lü graduated from the Department of History at Hangzhou University. In 1983, he became a lecturer at Zhejiang Police College, specializing in modern Chinese history. However, as his dissatisfaction with the political reality deepened and his belief in democratic ideals grew stronger, he began writing essays criticizing CCP authoritarianism and calling for political reform. He was one of the earliest “online independent writers” in China.
Lü authored A Collection of Chinese Injustice Cases, which exposed miscarriages of justice, illegal demolitions, corruption, and extralegal detention. His sharp and truthful style earned him deep respect among petitioners and human rights activists. Yet his pen came at a cost:
• In 2008, he was sentenced to 4 years for “inciting subversion of state power.”
• In 2015, he received another 11-year sentence for “subversion of state power.”
The Democratic Idealist
Lü has long been a key member of the China Democracy Party, advocating for multiparty democracy, press freedom, judicial independence, and an end to one-party rule. His principles and personal sacrifices reflect the moral and intellectual conscience of a true public intellectual in China.
Under the CCP, any challenge to its legitimacy is met with swift repression. From the post-Tiananmen purge, to the 709 crackdown on human rights lawyers, to today’s trans-provincial arrests for online speech, the state has developed a comprehensive mechanism of authoritarian control.
The CCP routinely uses vague charges like “subversion,” “inciting subversion,” and “picking quarrels and provoking trouble” to silence dissent. Lü was jailed simply for writing essays, giving interviews, and participating in political activism—just like Xu Zhiyong, Guo Feixiong, Qin Yongmin, and many others.
Even after release, political prisoners are often placed under illegal forms of detention: residential surveillance, forced “travel,” or hidden imprisonment. Lü’s post-release treatment exemplifies this. Families of political prisoners are also targeted—harassed, threatened, even detained. In the case of Lee Ming-cheh, his wife Li Ching-yu was smeared for her advocacy in Taiwan.
At the same time, China’s Great Firewall silences dissent, suppresses foreign media, and blocks NGOs—constructing a digital iron curtain to isolate truth.
Repression Cannot Kill the Dream
Despite authoritarian control, the desire for democracy, rule of law, and justice persists—and even grows under pressure.
In recent years, civil society forces—human rights lawyers, independent journalists, environmental volunteers, faith communities—have expanded. These are not traditional political actors, but they awaken politically in defense of their own rights, gradually forming the foundations of civic consciousness.
Though scattered and repressed, their existence proves that no regime can fully absorb the demands of society. Real democratic transformation must arise from such social soil.
Abroad, democratic forces continue to organize and grow:
• The China Democracy Party,
• ChinaAid,
• Humanitarian China,
and others actively expose human rights abuses and rally international attention.
The struggles in Hong Kong, Xinjiang, and Tibet further resonate with the democratic movement in mainland China.
Overseas voices have built a base of advocacy and moral pressure that will be crucial when political change accelerates.
The Digital Frontline and the Next Generation
Despite heavy censorship, China’s youth still find ways to break through: VPNs, encrypted communication, coded language on Weibo. Digital resistance has become the new frontline in the fight for freedom. Figures like Lü Gengsong, once trailblazers of online speech, are now seen as pioneers of free expression in the digital age.
Whether China can democratize—and when—remains uncertain. But history is shaped by countless small but resolute acts of resistance.
The 1980s model of “reformers within the system” is now obsolete. Under Xi Jinping, all reformist voices have been purged. China is sliding toward totalitarian rigidity akin to North Korea.
But if China faces major economic crises, leadership shifts, or widespread unrest, the ruling elite may be forced to compromise or restructure power. Such inflection points—like the Soviet collapse or the Arab Spring—often come unexpectedly.
Current signs are telling:
• The property crisis,
• Soaring youth unemployment,
• Mounting debt—
China is entering a critical decade.
If long-standing discontent erupts into national protests, labor strikes, or student awakenings, a nonviolent movement could emerge. The “White Paper Movement” and the “Chained Woman Incident” have already revealed deep cracks in the social fabric. The CCP’s hypervigilance around such events only confirms its fear.
The Soul of a Nation
Lü Gengsong is not alone. Behind him stands an army of unnamed freedom fighters—hidden in cities, behind bars, or whispering online—who struggle for dignity, justice, and truth. They were not born political; they were forced into resistance by oppression.
Their existence reminds us:
Tyranny can crush bodies, but not thoughts. It can silence voices, but not hope.
China’s path to democracy will be long, treacherous, and uncertain.
But as Nelson Mandela said:
“I have walked that long road to freedom… but I can only rest for a moment, for with freedom comes responsibilities, and I dare not linger.”
In Lü Gengsong and all political prisoners, we see the soul of a nation that refuses to die.
That soul is faint, but unwavering.
It will guide China out of the long night of authoritarianism and toward the dawn of freedom.
—Written on the day of Lü Gengsong’s release, July 2025
