Lee Kuan Yew’s Prophecy on China — On the Jiangyou Incident
作者：郭斌
编辑：李聪玲 责任编辑：罗志飞
李光耀曾经在采访中被问及中国未来的执政危机是什么，他回答“中国领导层需要考虑基层的贪污腐败以及基层治理不公导致的群体性灰天鹅事件”。在今天，四川江油市的民变则印证了这一预言。
四川江油事件是指2025年7月22日下午3点左右，在四川省江油市，一名14岁的初中女生赖某某被三名同龄女生带至一处废弃楼房，遭受辱骂、脱衣、扇耳光、下跪和飞踹等暴力欺凌，其间有人扬言：“我们又不是没进去过派出所，20分钟就出来”。
该视频经微信群、微博和抖音广泛传播后，引发全国关注。江油市公安局于8月4日发布通报：施暴的15岁刘某甲与14岁彭某某被依法处以治安处罚，并启动送往专门学校进行矫治教育；另一名13岁女生及围观者则接受批评教育，责令监护人加强管束。受害人获得心理疏导和安抚，其聋哑母亲和家庭弱势背景也引发公众同情。
同日，大批江油市民自发聚集市政府前声援受害人家庭，高喊“文明执法”“给受害者一个公道”。警方迅速派出制服警察和黑衣人员前往现场，部分市民遭到器械殴打，被强行带走。有视频显示警方使用甩棍、辣椒水驱散群众，现场出现信号干扰设备，镇压行动一直持续至深夜。
中国的基层治理默认的规则是“穷不和富斗，富不和官斗”。作为弱势残疾家庭出身的女孩被校园霸凌，如果官方处理公平，想必不会引发民愤。背后有什么权力和金钱的勾兑尚不得而知，但有一点是肯定的，最初的处理结果并不让民众服气。
加之当前中国经济下行，民众偏向弱者的传统朴素道德观念，霸凌视频外流引发群情震荡，也就成了自然而然水到渠成的事情。老百姓需要一个情绪出口来宣泄自身的愤怒；需要一个发泄的出口表达天理公义。
但是政府的处理方式是值得玩味的，据传，最开始江油市政府已经和民众代表达成了协议，此次事件基本通过谈判就可以解决。但为何最终绵阳特警还是暴力清场，不以谈判的方式解决问题呢？
背后的逻辑很简单，如果你老百姓闹事就可以迫使政府让步，通过谈判解决了，那么就会有更多蒙冤的人去和政府叫板。政府武力清场的目的并不是为了解决事件，而是断绝老百姓的权利想法，它要让你怕，让你服。这是典型的法家治理逻辑。
最后我们回到李光耀的中国预言，在当下经济凋敝疲软的中国，类似今日江油的群体抗议不会是孤立事件。从中国政府的角度，究竟是继续传统的法家治理逻辑—-老百姓想要的，就偏偏不给，老百姓厌恶的，偏偏去做，要治的老百姓没有脾气，不敢跟政府叫板要权利。还有另一条道路，就是让基层老百姓有申诉的渠道，有基本的作为人的权利和尊严。历史的经验告诉我们，前者的驾驭民众的方法，不会长久。后者民心所向，才是历史的方向。
共产党，会选择何种方向呢？
Lee Kuan Yew’s Prophecy on China — On the Jiangyou Incident
Abstract:
The bullying incident in Jiangyou, Sichuan has sparked public outrage. Citizens’ peaceful appeals were met with violent suppression, affirming Lee Kuan Yew’s warning about a looming governance crisis in China. This article condemns the CCP’s use of violence to silence public opinion and calls for a return to rule of law and human decency — and for the government to listen to the people.
By Guo Bin
Edited by Li Congling | Chief Editor: Luo Zhifei | Translated by Lu Huiwen
In an interview, Lee Kuan Yew was once asked about the biggest governance crisis facing China in the future. He replied,
“China’s leadership needs to address grassroots-level corruption and the injustices of local governance, which may trigger large-scale ‘gray swan’ events.”
Today, the popular uprising in Jiangyou, Sichuan, has proven this prediction true.
The Jiangyou incident refers to events on July 22, 2025, around 3 p.m., when a 14-year-old girl surnamed Lai, a junior high school student in Jiangyou City, Sichuan Province, was lured to an abandoned building by three girls of similar age. There, she was verbally abused, stripped, slapped, forced to kneel, and violently kicked. During the attack, one girl even boasted:
“It’s not like we haven’t been to the police station before — we’ll be out in 20 minutes.”
After video footage of the incident spread widely on WeChat groups, Weibo, and TikTok, it drew nationwide attention. On August 4, the Jiangyou Public Security Bureau issued a statement: Liu (15) and Peng (14), the main perpetrators, were given administrative penalties and sent to a special correctional school. Another girl, aged 13, along with bystanders, received criticism and were ordered into the custody of their guardians. The victim received psychological counseling and support. Her background — coming from a disabled, impoverished, and vulnerable family — stirred significant public sympathy.
That same day, large numbers of Jiangyou residents spontaneously gathered in front of the city government building to support the victim and her family, chanting slogans such as:
“Civilized law enforcement!”
“Justice for the victim!”
Police swiftly deployed uniformed officers and plainclothed enforcers to the scene. Some citizens were reportedly beaten with batons and forcibly taken away. Videos show law enforcement using expandable batons and pepper spray to disperse the crowd. Signal jamming devices were visible at the site. The crackdown continued into the night.
In China’s grassroots governance, there’s an unspoken rule:
“The poor don’t fight the rich; the rich don’t fight officials.”
When a girl from a marginalized, disabled family is subjected to school bullying, and if the government handles it fairly, it’s unlikely to spark mass anger. What kind of backroom dealings of power and money lie behind this case remains unclear. But one thing is certain — the initial official response did not satisfy the public.
Moreover, amid China’s economic downturn and the public’s deep-rooted sense of moral empathy for the weak, the widespread circulation of the bullying video ignited public outrage naturally and inevitably. The people needed a release valve — a way to vent their anger, to demand basic justice and human decency.
Yet the government’s response was telling. Reportedly, the Jiangyou city government had initially reached an agreement with citizen representatives, and the matter could have been resolved through negotiation. So why did the Mianyang SWAT team ultimately resort to a violent crackdown? Why not resolve the issue through peaceful dialogue?
The answer is simple.
If public protest can force the government to back down,
if negotiation becomes the norm,
then more wronged citizens will rise to challenge the government.
The goal of violent suppression is not to solve the incident — it’s to crush the very idea that people have rights.
It’s meant to instill fear, to enforce submission.
This is the logic of Legalist-style governance. Let us return to Lee Kuan Yew’s prophecy. In today’s China, weakened and worn down economically, incidents like the Jiangyou protest will not be isolated cases. From the Chinese government’s standpoint, there are two paths ahead:
• One is to persist with traditional Legalist tactics:
Deny the people what they want.
Give them what they most resent.
Govern them until they are too afraid, too exhausted, and too hopeless to resist.
• The other path is to build a society where ordinary people have channels to appeal, to have their basic human rights and dignity respected.
History has shown that the former — ruling through fear and suppression — cannot last.
The latter — listening to the people — is the true direction of history.
The question is:
Which path will the Communist Party choose?
