Who Really Wants to Attack Taiwan? — A Confession of False Peace and Real War
作者：陀先润
编辑：周志刚 责任编辑：罗志飞 翻译：鲁慧文
近来，台海的海风并不平静。军机越线、军演频频、外交口水战不断。外界常问——到底是谁想打台湾？是台湾民众吗？不是。是美国吗？不尽然。答案其实很清楚——北京当局、中共政权、以及习近平本人。
自上世纪末起，中共一直高喊“和平统一”，然而它的行动从未与言辞匹配：军演、军机扰台、导弹威胁从未停止。国际公认的和平是互不侵犯、彼此尊重，但中共的“和平”是必须接受它的统治、制度与价值观！否则就是“分裂分子”，可以被消灭的敌人。这种和平，不过是披着糖衣的毒药。
对于北京而言，战争是一种廉价且高效的维稳手段。经济下滑、失业率攀升、民怨沸腾，这些内部压力，都可能通过一场民族主义动员来转移。历史上，无数独裁政权都走过同样的路径：法西斯德国、军国主义日本、阿根廷的福克兰战争……。他们都借外战来转移内忧，结局却无一例外是灾难。而今天的中共，只是换了一张面孔的旧剧本。
台湾的存在，是对中共最大的讽刺——同样是华人社会，却拥有新闻自由、司法独立与全民投票的权利。它就像一面镜子，照出了大陆体制的荒诞与虚伪，让独裁者寝食难安。因此他们必须“解决”台湾，不是为了统一，不是为了民生，而是为了掩盖自身失败。这就是为什么北京当局把台湾视为必须‘解决’的政治难题。
今天，它可以说“统一台湾”；明天，它就可以说“收回南海”；后天，它甚至可以说“恢复清朝版图”。所谓“民族大义”，只是维系权力的工具；所谓“和平统一”，只是征服的开场白。
台海的紧张，并非民族仇恨，而是体制冲突——独裁与民主之间的对立。真正想打台湾的，不是台湾人，也不是绝大多数中国人，而是一个害怕自由思想蔓延、害怕民主制度在大陆生根的政权。
当北京宣称“不惜一切代价”时，代价绝不会由它来承担，而是由无数普通人的生命、家园与未来来支付。历史终将记住，谁才是真正按下战争按钮的人。
Who Really Wants to Attack Taiwan? — A Confession of False Peace and Real War
Author: Tuo Xianrun
Editor: Zhou Zhigang Executive Editor: Luo Zhifei Translation: Huiwen Lu
Abstract: The true purpose behind the CCP’s ambition to attack Taiwan.
In recent times, the winds across the Taiwan Strait have been far from calm. Military aircraft crossing the median line, repeated military exercises, and constant diplomatic war of words. The outside world often asks — who really wants to attack Taiwan? Is it the people of Taiwan? No. Is it the United States? Not exactly. The answer is in fact very clear — it is the Beijing authorities, the Chinese Communist regime, and Xi Jinping himself.
Since the end of the last century, the CCP has constantly shouted about “peaceful reunification.” Yet its actions have never matched its words: military exercises, warplane incursions, and missile threats have never ceased. The internationally recognized meaning of peace is mutual non-aggression and respect. But the CCP’s version of “peace” means that one must accept its rule, its system, and its values! Otherwise, one is labeled a “separatist” — an enemy to be eliminated. Such peace is nothing but poison coated in sugar.
For Beijing, war is a cheap and efficient means of maintaining stability. Economic decline, rising unemployment, and public resentment — all these internal pressures can be diverted through a campaign of nationalist mobilization. History has seen countless dictatorships follow this same path: Nazi Germany, militarist Japan, Argentina in the Falklands War… They all launched external wars to divert domestic crises. And without exception, the result was disaster. Today’s CCP is merely staging an old script under a new face.
The very existence of Taiwan is the greatest mockery to the CCP — a Chinese society that enjoys freedom of the press, judicial independence, and the right to vote. It is like a mirror reflecting the absurdity and hypocrisy of the mainland’s system, leaving the dictator sleepless and uneasy. Therefore, Taiwan must be “dealt with.” Not for unification, not for the people’s livelihood, but to cover up its own failures. That is why the Beijing authorities see Taiwan as a political problem that must be “solved.”
Today, it may say “unify Taiwan.” Tomorrow, it may say “take back the South China Sea.” The day after, it may even say “restore the Qing dynasty’s territory.” The so-called “national cause” is nothing but a tool to preserve power. The so-called “peaceful reunification” is nothing but the prologue to conquest.
The tension in the Taiwan Strait is not about ethnic hatred, but about a clash of systems — the confrontation between dictatorship and democracy. The ones who truly want to attack Taiwan are not the Taiwanese people, nor the vast majority of Chinese people, but a regime that fears the spread of free thought, and fears the rooting of democratic institutions in mainland China.
When Beijing declares it will pay any price, the price will never be borne by itself, but by countless ordinary people’s lives, homes, and futures. History will ultimately remember who it was that truly pressed the button of war.
