作者：陀先润
编辑：周志刚 责任编辑：罗志飞 翻译：程铭

前两天的阅兵，看台上人声鼎沸，镜头把每一颗钮扣都照得发亮，可只要把音量调小，你会听到另一个声音：这不是国力的自信，而是秩序的焦虑。普京、习近平、金正恩三人同框的照片，被包装成“历史瞬间”，其实更像一张价码单。它不靠承诺赢得信任，而是用象征抬高交易成本：制裁更难谈，能源更难断，军贸更难掐。照片改变不了现实，却会改变别人算账的模型；影像成了谈判桌上的筹码，代价却由普通人的生活去承担——汇率、运价、关税、失业，最后都会从新闻字幕里走进菜市场。

礼宾细节里还有一幕耐人寻味：人刚离开，杯子和座椅立刻擦拭。有人拿“讲究卫生”打圆场，懂的人知道那是反取证的肌肉记忆。唾液、皮屑、纤维、指纹，都是能被利用的线索；把痕迹抹掉，不是追求洁净，而是害怕被看见。真正的自信，是允许真实留下来；当“人走、物清、痕灭”被写进流程，表明恐惧已成为制度的一部分。对内，这种流程要求所有人“别出错”；对外，它等于公开承认一种脆弱：权力需要靠无痕来维持安全感。

镜头里金正恩女儿那张年轻的脸，也别当综艺看点。提前给头衔、给站位、给镜头，不是庆祝童真，而是训练“习惯”与“服气”。在一个高度重视血统的系统里，接班并非为了改革，而是为了维持稳定本身；越早露面，越说明当下的合法性产能不足，需要用未来的继承来补票。把权力的连续性当作唯一的长期价值，是一种贫乏的想象：当制度无法不断生产说服力，只能不断生产继承人。观众被要求感动，系统被要求服从，问题被要求沉默。

队伍里的变化，被解说词命名为“体系作战、信息主导、天基融合”。翻译成人话，就是把旧的、笨的、容易被问责的那部分藏起来，把新的、酷的、便于讲故事的那部分抬出来。过去那个把天上、网络、电磁都往里堆的大口袋，正在被拆分成若干“专业模块”；火箭的“极核能力”被高举，链路、感知、抗毁被装进新的盒子里。表面看是专业化，实则也是问责的分摊与叙事的重组——像会计把坏账剥离到子公司，然后宣布主账本变漂亮了。真正的现代化，不只是把“天—网—地—端”连成闭环，更是要把权力边界、预算透明、文官控制、军民关系放到阳光下；若只是换话术、添术语，那叫现代化叙事，而不是现代化本身。

把这些片段拼起来，结论并不艰深：同框是抬价，擦拭是封口，接班是固权，换阵是维稳。整场仪式对内是安神，对外是加价，离“自信”还有十万八千里。对周边而言，“二选一”的时刻会变多；对民众而言，既要感动又要买单还要保持沉默。当强硬被当作麻醉剂，问责会被定性为挑刺，讨论会被归类为扰乱，理性会被嘲作软弱。鼓点会更齐，镜头会更密，脚步会更整齐，而回旋的空间会越来越窄。表面看是铁与血，实际上是把成本推迟到更黑的角落，把风险转嫁给更沉默的人。

一个国家真正的安全感，不是让对手害怕，而是让自己不必害怕：不怕事实被揭开，不怕舆论来提问，不怕权力有替换。不必擦掉杯影，也不必擦掉影子；不必把“不可言说”写进流程，也不必让“不可更替”写进家谱。否则，今天练的是队形，明天练的就是沉默；今天齐的是鼓点，明天响的就是心虚。广场可以铺得更大，镜头可以架得更高，但装不下的，终究是被推迟的账单和被压抑的真相。

The more the drums beat, the louder the guilt.

Author: Duo Xianrun
Editor: Zhou Zhigang Responsible Editor: Luo Zhifei translator：Ming Cheng

Abstract: On September 3, 2025, a military parade was held in Tiananmen Square to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Chinese People’s War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti-Fascist War. On the surface, China is extremely confident, but in fact, it has exposed its order anxiety.

In the military parade two days ago, the stands were full of people, and the camera shone every button brightly. But as long as you turn down the volume, you will hear another voice: this is not the confidence of the national power, but the anxiety of order. The photo of Putin, Xi Jinping and Kim Jong-un in the same frame is packaged as a “historical moment”, which is actually more like a price list. It does not rely on promises to win trust but uses symbols to raise transaction costs: sanctions are more difficult to negotiate, energy is more difficult to break, and arms trade is more difficult to pinch. Photos cannot change the reality, but they will change the model of other people’s accounting; images have become chips on the negotiating table, but the price is borne by the lives of ordinary people – exchange rates, freight rates, tariffs, unemployment, and finally they will enter the vegetable market from news subtitles.

There is also an intriguing scene in the details of the concierge: as soon as the person left, the cup and seat were wiped immediately. Some people use “pay attention to hygiene” to make a round field, and those who know it know that it is a muscle memory of anti-exorction. Saliva, dandruff, fibers and fingerprints are all clues that can be used; erasing traces is not to pursue cleanliness, but to be afraid of being seen. True self-confidence is to allow the truth to stay; when “people leave, things are clear, and traces disappear” is written into the process, it shows that fear has become a part of the system. Internally, this process requires everyone to “don’t make mistakes”; externally, it is equivalent to openly admitting a kind of vulnerability: power needs to rely on tracelessness to maintain a sense of security.

Don’t take the young face of Kim Jong-un’s daughter in the camera as a variety show. Give the title, position and camera in advance, not to celebrate childlike, but to train “habits” and “convinced”. In a system that attaches great importance to bloodline, succession is not for reform, but to maintain stability itself; the earlier it is revealed, the more it shows that the current legal capacity is insufficient, and it needs to be made up with future inheritance. Taking the continuity of power as the only long-term value is a poor imagination: when the system cannot continuously produce persuasive power, it can only continuously produce successors. The audience is required to be moved, the system is required to obey, and the problem is required to be silent.

The changes in the team are named “system combat, information-led, and sky-based integration” by the commentary. To translate human language, it is to hide the old, stupid and accountable part, and bring out the new, cool and easy-to-tell story part. In the past, the big pocket that piled up the sky, the network and the electromagnetics is being divided into several “professional modules”; the “polar nuclear ability” of the rocket has been held high, and the link, perception and anti-destruction are put into a new box. On the surface, it is professional, but in fact, it is also the reorganization of accountability and narrative – like the accountant divest bad debts to subsidiaries and then announces that the main ledger has become beautiful. Real modernization is not only to connect the “sky-network-earth-end” into a closed loop, but also to put the boundaries of power, budget transparency, civilian control, and military-civilian relations under the sun; if it is just a change of words and add terms, it is called a modernization narrative, not modernization itself.

Putting these fragments together, the conclusion is not difficult: the same frame is to raise the price, wipe is to seal, take over is to consolidate power, and to change the formation is to maintain stability. The whole ceremony is peaceful internally and increased externally. It is still 100,000 miles away from “confidence”. For the surrounding people, there will be more moments of “two to choose one”; for the people, it is necessary to be moved and pay the bill and remain silent. When toughness is used as an anesthetic, accountability will be characterized as provocation, discussion will be classified as disturbance, and reason will be ridiculed as weakness. The drumbeats will be more even, the lens will be denser, the steps will be neater, and the space for turning will become narrower and narrower. On the surface, it is iron and blood, but in fact, it postpones the cost to a darker corner and transfers the risk to more silent people.

The real sense of security of a country is not to make the opponent afraid, but to make oneself not to be afraid: not to be afraid of the facts being exposed, not to be afraid of public opinion to ask questions, not to be afraid that power will be replaced. There is no need to erase the shadow of the cup, and there is no need to erase the shadow; there is no need to write “unspeakable” in the process, and there is no need to write “unplaceable” in the family tree. Otherwise, what we practice today is the formation, and what we practice tomorrow is silence; what we practice today is the drumbeat, and what we play tomorrow is guilt. The square can be paved larger, and the camera can be set higher, but what can’t be installed is the postponed bill and the suppressed truth.