作者/编辑：张致君
责任编辑：罗志飞 翻译：程铭
图为要捐款打台湾的张雪峰。（视频截图）
近日，中国教育界网红张雪峰在一次公开活动中放出豪言：“若解放军攻台，我愿捐款五千万。” 这句话瞬间引爆了网络。有人称赞他“有家国情怀”，有人批评他“鼓动战争”，也有人讽刺说，他这是在借民族主义热度为自己再次博取流量。无论人们如何解读，这一言论无疑反映了当下中国社会舆论的一种奇怪氛围：“攻打台湾”正在被越来越多人视为一种必然的未来选择。
事实上，张雪峰并非唯一的声音。从官方宣传到网络民粹，从军方表态到民间舆论，都在不断强化一个叙事：统一台湾不仅是民族大义，更是中共必须完成的历史使命。 然而，当我们深入思考，会发现“攻台必然论”并非出于民族情感或历史宿命，而是中共政权在自身逻辑、合法性危机、经济困境、国际博弈与舆论操控的多重推动下走上的一条险路。
中共之所以一定要攻打台湾，并不是因为台湾问题本身不可调和，而是因为中共的体制逻辑已将自己逼入死角。张雪峰“捐款5000万”的豪言，不过是这个逻辑下社会被裹挟的缩影。
从历史来看，自1949年国共内战结束以来，中共就将台湾视为“必须统一的领土”。随着中国取代台湾在联合国的席位，“一个中国”的原则逐渐成为中共最核心的外交红线。北京政府不断要求各国在建交时承认“台湾是中国的一部分”，甚至逼迫许多小国与台湾断绝邦交。
这种长期“一中原则”的坚持反而成为了中共的枷锁。一旦台湾事实上独立，并获得国际社会广泛承认，那么中共数十年的外交叙事就会彻底破产，国家主权的合法性将受到致命打击。对一个专制政权而言，意识形态的失败几乎等同于政权合法性的失败。
习近平上台后提出“中华民族伟大复兴”，并将台湾问题视为其中的关键拼图。中共宣传机器不断灌输：如果台湾不能统一，那么“民族复兴”就不完整。这种政治设定将台湾与中共的执政合法性牢牢捆绑在一起。
换言之，台湾问题早已不是单纯的两岸事务，而是中共政权合法性的一部分。正因如此，中共无法容忍台湾继续保持民主制度与事实独立，否则“复兴大业”将彻底沦为空话。
中共自称是马克思主义政党，实际上，随着经济改革与权贵资本主义的盛行，马克思主义在中国早已失去了吸引力。意识形态的真空需要新的合法性来源，民族主义恰好成为最佳替代。
在这种情况下，“统一台湾”不仅是政治任务，更是民族主义的最高象征。台湾越是坚持民主制度，就越显得中共的专制落后；而要消除这种对比，中共唯一能做的就是“收复台湾”。
再结合近些年国内政治走向，习近平通过修宪取消任期限制，通过反腐运动集中权力，看似巩固了政权，实际上却让一切责任都集中在个人身上。经济下滑、腐败未除、社会矛盾激化，民众对中共的不满不断积累。
在这种背景下，发动对台战争成为习近平维系统治的一种极端选择。因为一旦国内矛盾爆发，他几乎没有退路，只能通过外部战争转移压力。
过去，中共依靠经济增长换取民众的顺从。然而如今，中国经济陷入困境：房地产泡沫破裂，失业率高企，年轻人“躺平”，社会流动性下降。没有了“发展神话”，中共需要新的合法性叙事。“统一台湾”恰好成为新的执政口号与维稳手段。
中共执政面对中国社会问题的层出不穷：人口老龄化、养老金缺口、医疗与教育不平等、城乡差距扩大。而解决这些问题就需要制度改革，但改革必然触碰既得利益，中共不会冒险。于是，它选择了最简单的办法：制造外部冲突，把矛盾转移到“民族大义”上。
当经济陷入长期停滞时，战争常常被专制政权视为“重启按钮”。通过军事动员，国家可以重新集中资源，政府可以以“国家安全”为名加强对经济的掌控。对中共而言，攻台可以让它在短期内实现权力再分配，转移经济危机。
张雪峰说的“中共解放军攻打台湾，他就捐款5000万支持攻台”的言论，本质上就是社会“战争幻想”的一个缩影。许多人相信，只要打下台湾，就能带来经济复苏、民族振奋，甚至个人机会。但这种幻想忽视了战争的代价：死亡、破坏、制裁与长期动荡。
随着国际社会对中共的认识越来越多，中共在国际社会越来越孤立，中共如果“成功收复台湾”，便能制造一种“不可阻挡的崛起”幻象，迫使其他国家承认现实，扭转中国在国际社会共同认识上的衰落。而这种心理也正是中共要赌上国运攻台的原因。
从网红老师张雪峰的“攻台”言论中，我们可以再一次清晰的感受到，民族主义是中共最常用的统治工具。相比复杂的制度改革，煽动“爱国情绪”既简单又高效。只需宣传“台湾是中国的”，就能让民众忘记失业、通胀与贫困。
如今在高度审查的中国互联网钟，反战声音被删除，支持武统的声音被放大，久而久之，形成了“全社会一致”的假象。张雪峰作为公众人物，不表态，就可能被攻击为“不爱国”；因此，事后他又再次发布视频说他已经准备好了，用升学的手段，把中国大陆的学生渗透到台湾，以此为中共的统战做准备，以证明其对党的忠诚。
在这样的宣传与蛊惑下，普通人并不真正理解战争的代价，却被舆论裹挟，成为战争叙事的附庸。张雪峰的言论正说明：即便是受过教育的知识分子，也可能沦为民族主义的工具。
中共之所以一定要攻打台湾，并不是因为台湾问题本身无法和平解决，而是因为中共体制逻辑的必然性：张雪峰“捐款5000万”的言论，只是这种氛围下的缩影。它说明，即便是社会名人，也被中共政党机器的宣传与蛊惑下，顺应民族主义洪流，甚至主动参与其中。
然而，攻台并非坦途，它伴随着巨大的军事、经济与政治风险。战争也许能给中共的执政带来短期合法性，但无法解决长期的体制困境。一个依赖战争维系的政权，终将被战争本身吞噬。
政府，一定是要建立在人民的选票上的。
政府，一定是要接受人民的监督的。
Why must the Communist Party of China attack Taiwan?
——Let’s start with Zhang Xuefeng’s “donation of 50 million” remarks
Author/Editor: Zhang Zhijun
Editor-in-Chief: Luo Zhifei Translator: Ming Cheng
The picture shows Zhang Xuefeng, who wants to donate to Taiwan. (Video screenshot)
Recently, Zhang Xuefeng, an Internet celebrity in the Chinese education industry, said in a public event: “If the People’s Liberation Army attacks Taiwan, I am willing to donate 50 million yuan.” This sentence instantly detonated the Internet. Some people praise him for “has patriotism”, some people criticize him for “inciting war”, and some people sarcastically say that he is using the heat of nationalism to gain traffic for himself again. No matter how people interpret it, this statement undoubtedly reflects a strange atmosphere of current Chinese public opinion: “attacking Taiwan” is being regarded as an inevitable future choice by more and more people.
In fact, Zhang Xuefeng is not the only voice. From official propaganda to online populism, from military statements to public opinion, a narrative is constantly being strengthened: the unification of Taiwan is not only a national justice, but also a historical mission that the Communist Party of China must complete. However, when we think deeply, we will find that the “Inevitability of Attacking Taiwan” is not based on national emotions or historical fate, but a dangerous path taken by the Communist Party of China regime under the multiple promotion of its own logic, legitimacy crisis, economic difficulties, international games and public opinion manipulation.
The reason why the Communist Party of China must attack Taiwan is not because the Taiwan issue itself cannot be reconciled, but because the institutional logic of the Communist Party of China has pushed itself into a dead end. Zhang Xuefeng’s bold statement of “donating 50 million” is just a microcosm of the hostage society under this logic.
Historically, since the end of the Kuomintang-Communist Civil War in 1949, the Communist Party of China has regarded Taiwan as “a territory that must be unified”. As China replaces Taiwan’s seat in the United Nations, the principle of “one China” has gradually become the core diplomatic red line of the Communist Party of China. The Beijing government constantly requires countries to recognize that “Taiwan is a part of China” when establishing diplomatic relations and even forces many small countries to break off diplomatic relations with Taiwan.
This long-term adherence to the “One-China Principle” has become a shackle for the Communist Party of China. Once Taiwan is in fact independent and widely recognized by the international community, the Communist Party of China’s decades of diplomatic narrative will be completely bankrupt, and the legitimacy of national sovereignty will be fatally hit. For an authoritarian regime, the failure of ideology is almost equivalent to the failure of regime legitimacy.
After Xi Jinping took to the pose the “Great Rejuvenation of the Chinese Nation” and regarded the Taiwan issue as the key puzzle. The propaganda machine of the Communist Party of China constantly instills that if Taiwan cannot be unified, then the “national rejuvenation” will not be complete. This political setting firmly binds Taiwan and the ruling legitimacy of the Communist Party of China.
In other words, the Taiwan issue is no longer a simple cross-strait affair, but a part of the legitimacy of the Communist Party of China regime. For this reason, the Communist Party of China cannot tolerate Taiwan’s continued democratic system and factual independence, otherwise the “rejuvenation cause” will be completely empty words.
The Communist Party of China claims to be a Marxist political party. In fact, with the prevalence of economic reform and powerful capitalism, Marxism has long lost its attractiveness in China. The ideological vacuum requires a new source of legitimacy, and nationalism happens to be the best alternative.
In this case, “unification of Taiwan” is not only a political task, but also the highest symbol of nationalism. The more Taiwan adheres to the democratic system, the more the autocratic backward the Communist Party of China appears; to eliminate this contrast, the only thing the Communist Party of China can do is to “recover Taiwan”.
Combined with the domestic political trend in recent years, Xi Jinping has abolished the term of office through constitutional amendment and concentrated power through the anti-corruption movement. It seems to have consolidated the regime, but in fact it has concentrated all the responsibility on individuals. With the economic downturn, corruption not being eliminated, and social contradictions intensifying, people’s dissatisfaction with the Communist Party of China continues to accumulate.
Against this background, launching a war against Taiwan has become an extreme choice for Xi Jinping to maintain his system. Because once domestic conflicts break out, he has almost no way out and can only divert pressure through external wars.
In the past, the Communist Party of China relied on economic growth in exchange for the obedience of the people. However, today, China’s economy is in trouble: the real estate bubble is bursting, the unemployment rate is high, young people are “lying flat”, and social mobility is declining. Without the “development myth”, the Communist Party of China needs a new narrative of legitimacy. “Unification of Taiwan” has become a new governing slogan and a means of maintaining stability.
The Communist Party of China is facing endless social problems in China: population aging, pension gap, medical and education inequality, and the widening gap between urban and rural areas. Solving these problems requires institutional reform, but reform is bound to touch vested interests, and the Communist Party of China will not take risks. Therefore, it chose the simplest way: to create external conflicts and transfer contradictions to “national righteousness”.
When the economy is in a long-term stagnation, war is often regarded as a “restart button” by authoritarian regimes. Through military mobilization, the country can re-concentrate resources, and the government can strengthen its control over the economy in the name of “national security”. For the Communist Party of China, attacking Taiwan can enable it to achieve the redistribution of power in the short term and transfer the economic crisis.
Zhang Xuefeng’s statement that “if the People’s Liberation Army of the Communist Party of China attacks Taiwan, he will donate 50 million yuan to support the attack on Taiwan” is essentially a microcosm of the “war fantasy” of society. Many people believe that as long as Taiwan is hit, it can bring economic recovery, national uplifting, and even personal opportunities. But this illusion ignores the cost of war: death, destruction, sanctions and long-term unrest.
With the increasing international community’s awareness of the Communist Party of China and the increasing isolation of the Communist Party of China in the international community, if the Communist Party of China “successfully recovers Taiwan”, it can create an illusion of “unstoppable rise”, forcing other countries to recognize the reality and reverse the decline of China’s common understanding in the international community. And this mentality is also the reason why the Communist Party of China wants to bet on the National Games to attack Taiwan.
From the “attacking Taiwan” remarks of Internet celebrity teacher Zhang Xuefeng, we can once again clearly feel that nationalism is the most commonly used governing tool of the Communist Party of China. Compared with complex institutional reforms, inciting “patriotism” is both simple and efficient. Just by promoting “Taiwan belongs to China”, people can forget about unemployment, inflation and poverty.
Nowadays, in the highly censored Chinese Internet clock, the anti-war voices have been deleted and the voices in support of armed unification have been amplified. Over time, the illusion of “the unity of the whole society” has been formed. As a public figure, Zhang Xuefeng may be attacked as “unpatriotic” if he does not take a stand. Therefore, he later released a video again saying that he was ready to infiltrate mainland Chinese students into Taiwan by means of further education, so as to prepare for the united front of the Communist Party of China and prove his loyalty to the Party.
Under such propaganda and deception, ordinary people do not really understand the cost of war but are held hostage by public opinion and become vassals of the war narrative. Zhang Xuefeng’s remarks show that even educated intellectuals may be reduced to tools of nationalism.
The reason why the Communist Party of China must attack Taiwan is not because the Taiwan issue itself cannot be resolved peacefully, but because of the inevitability of the Communist Party of China’s institutional logic: Zhang Xuefeng’s “donation of 50 million” is just a microcosm of this atmosphere. It shows that even social celebrities are also followed by the torrent of nationalism and even actively participate in it under the propaganda and deception of the political party machine of the Communist Party of China.
However, the attack on Taiwan is not a smooth road, and it comes with huge military, economic and political risks. War may bring short-term legitimacy to the ruling of the Communist Party of China, but it cannot solve the long-term institutional dilemma. A regime that depends on war for maintenance will eventually be swallowed up by the war itself.
The government must be based on the people’s votes.
The government must be supervised by the people.
