Russia–Ukraine War: The Ukrainian People Will Ultimately Prevail
作者：王治水 （国内中国民主党早期创党领袖）
编辑：李聪玲 责任编辑：罗志飞 鲁慧文 翻译：鲁慧文
我们从以下几个方面论证烏克兰最终为什么会胜。
一、政治方面：2014年俄国就侵占了克里米亚,这次又侵占了烏东四州,激发了烏克兰人民强烈的抵抗意志。俄的鲁莽愚蠢行为为世界上绝大多数国家所不耻,于是,几乎所有的欧洲国家都帮着烏克兰,这样,烏克兰人民就有了坚定的信心。德国国防部长说：”要么我们共同胜利,要么我们共同失败。”
北大西洋公约组织决不会让俄胜利的,一旦俄得势,欧洲就不得安宁了,这是一次千载难逢打败俄的好机会。俄的领土面积世界第一,可它还贪得无厌,多次蚕食别的国家,别的国家早已警惕了。如果俄胆敢冒天下之大不韪,动用核武器,那么,世界各国人民便不会让这个民族存在了。普京说的”给我二十年,还你一个强大的俄罗斯。”，就会变成”给我二十年,还你一个破碎的俄罗斯了。”
二、经济方面：多个国家已冻结俄在国外的资产,俄只能卖点石油和天然气支撑战争,且石油由前几年一百多美元一桶变成现在的几十美元一桶。前不久,美又对全世界下了一项禁令：凡支持俄的,出口到美的商品,统统增加百分之五百的关税。这要不了多久,俄的金融体系便要崩塌。北大西洋公约组织几十个国家的经济总量不知要高出俄多少倍,俄虽有朝鲜的支持,但起不了多大作用。
三、军事方面：烏克兰的领土面积和人口都不如俄罗斯,但烏克兰是保家卫国,是正义的战争。得道多助,失道寡助。无数发达国家支持烏克兰,只是他们不想逼俄太急,以免俄狗急跳墙动用核武器,这对全球不利,故他们叫烏克兰用一个”拖”字,死死拖住俄不放。原来北大西洋公约组织提供的先进武器只能用于防御国土,不打俄本土；现在他们放宽了限制,可以打击俄本土了。烏克兰人民可以放开手脚,利用发达国家的先进武器,精准狠地炸掉克里米亚大桥,截断俄的补给线；再用在德、英、法轮训的无人机,不断袭扰首都莫斯科,军事基地和重要补给线,以小胜換大胜,最大限度地减少人员伤亡。特朗普为什么没下场援烏呢？这就是他为普京设下的一个陷阱,他知道普京输不起这场战争,也知道他得理不让人的犟牛性格。他也知泽连斯基决不会割让领土而屈膝求和。当普京不听调停时,他假意从俄烏战争中抽身,让其它北大西洋公约组织顶住俄,而在另一方面预防中共在台海、南海寻衅滋事。其实,中共的如意算盘是：俄能在一个星期内拿下基辅,再趁得胜之余威,与俄遥相呼应,趁机对台湾动手。现在如意算盘全空了,他们只能哀叹。俄乌战争还拖上一二年,烏克兰人民最终必胜。
当地球村的村长,非美莫属。
王治水
2025年7月9日
Russia–Ukraine War: The Ukrainian People Will Ultimately Prevail
By Wang Zhishui (Early Founding Leader of the China Democracy Party)
Edited by Li Congling | Executive Editors: Luo Zhifei, Lu Huiwen | Translated by Lu Huiwen
July 9, 2025
We assert that the Ukrainian people will ultimately win the war against Russia, based on the following key factors:
1. Political Factors
Russia’s aggression did not start in 2022—it began in 2014, when it annexed Crimea. Now, it has further invaded four eastern Ukrainian regions, igniting fierce resistance among the Ukrainian people. Russia’s reckless and arrogant actions have been condemned by the vast majority of the world.
Nearly all European nations are backing Ukraine, giving the Ukrainian people strong confidence. As Germany’s Defense Minister put it:
“Either we win together, or we fail together.”
NATO will never allow Russia to win. If Russia gains the upper hand, Europe will lose its peace and security. This is a once-in-a-generation opportunity to deal a decisive blow to Russian aggression.
Although Russia has the largest landmass in the world, it remains insatiable, constantly nibbling at its neighbors. Other countries are already on alert.
If Russia dares to use nuclear weapons, defying global norms, the peoples of the world will not allow that nation to exist in its current form.
Putin once boasted,
“Give me 20 years, and I’ll give you back a strong Russia.”
But that may well become:
“Give me 20 years, and I’ll return to you a shattered Russia.”
2. Economic Factors
Many nations have already frozen Russia’s overseas assets. The Russian economy now relies primarily on oil and gas exports—yet oil has dropped from over $100 a barrel to mere tens of dollars.
Recently, the U.S. imposed a new rule: any country supporting Russia will face a 500% tariff on its exports to the U.S.
It won’t take long before Russia’s financial system collapses.
The combined GDP of NATO countries dwarfs Russia’s many times over. Even with support from North Korea, it won’t significantly shift the balance.
3. Military Factors
While Russia may have greater territory and a larger population, Ukraine is fighting a just war—a war to defend its homeland.
“The just cause draws wide support; the unjust cause few allies.”
Numerous advanced nations are backing Ukraine. They have been careful not to provoke Russia too hastily, fearing a desperate resort to nuclear weapons. Thus, Ukraine has adopted a strategy of attrition, dragging Russia into a prolonged conflict.
In the early stages, NATO-supplied weapons could only be used defensively, within Ukrainian borders. But now, restrictions have been relaxed—Ukraine may strike Russian territory, including strategic targets.
Ukrainians can now fully utilize Western precision weapons to destroy vital infrastructure such as the Crimean Bridge, cutting off Russian supply lines.
Using drones trained by Germany, Britain, and France, Ukraine can strike Moscow, Russian military bases, and key logistics hubs—achieving major results through tactical victories, while minimizing casualties.
Why did Donald Trump seemingly stay out of the war effort? Because he laid a trap for Putin. He knew Putin couldn’t afford to lose, and he also understood Zelensky would never surrender land or accept a humiliating peace.
When Putin rejected mediation, Trump strategically withdrew, letting NATO countries bear the burden—while preparing to deter Chinese aggression in Taiwan and the South China Sea.
The Chinese Communist Party had hoped that Russia would seize Kyiv within a week, then capitalize on that momentum to join Russia in acting against Taiwan. But their dreams have collapsed. Now they can only watch and lament in silence.
If the war continues another one or two years, Ukraine will surely achieve final victory.
In today’s global village,
there is only one true village chief: the United States of America.
— Wang Zhishui
July 9, 2025
