作者：黄剑强
当新版《出境入境管理规定》即将施行时，海内外舆论一片哗然。有人从技术细节分析，有人从法律制度切入，也有人试图从历史规律中寻找答案。然而，这些分析大多是在避重就轻。习近平政权开启“闭关锁国”的根本目的只有一个：保权。
一个已经将所有权力牢牢掌握在手中的独裁者，为何依然深感不安？独裁者的逻辑永远不同于常人：当打破规矩实现连任，终身制就成了必然，因为一旦下台必然面临清算；而当终身制成为现实，世袭制就成了唯一保障，否则整个利益集团与家族都将面临覆灭。 中国历代封建王朝最脆弱的时刻，往往就是权力交接的窗口期——这恰恰是独裁者最为恐惧、也最为关注的核心问题。
有人认为经济崩溃、外资撤离、失业加剧会引发革命。但现实恐怕并非如此。中共统治集团从未将民众的疾苦放在心上。手握枪杆子与宣传机器，专制政权有一万种手段来镇压手无寸铁的百姓。更残酷的逻辑在于：经济衰退与民生匮乏，反而是实现权力世袭与绝对控制的必要条件。
当社会资源高度匮乏，粮食与生存资料被重新归拢于中央集权的食物配给制之下，“听话才能吃饱饭”就成了唯一的生存法则。在饥饿面前，尊严、理想与追求都会被生存本能碾碎。顺从者分配微薄的口粮，异见者则面临被边缘化甚至清洗的命运。将社会推入军管或半军管状态，是独裁政权巩固统治的最优解。
要推行这一计划，第一步自然是封锁国门。
在过去数十年的改革开放中，中国产生了一个拥有资产、受过良好教育、具备国际视野的阶层。他们接触过普世价值与自由文明，深知制度的弊端，渴望国家能向现代文明转型。他们有思想、有财富、有能力，因而也必然成为独裁世袭的最大障碍。
封锁国门，就是要将他们困于体制之内。“倒查二十年”等政治运动，正是为这一阶层量身定做。打着“共同富裕”的旗号剥夺其财富，随后践踏其人格，
最终将其拉回与大众相同的生存困境。剥夺其反抗的能力，清除世袭道路上的阻碍。
与物理封锁相配套的，是信息与思想的彻底切割。进一步收紧跨境网络连接、切断内外信息交流、利用水军与被收买的舆论大V引导风向、制造虚假叙事洗脑大众——这一切不过是冰山一角。
如今的统治逻辑，是将全体国民的现代化权利置于对立面，硬生生将国家拉回封建世袭的阴影之中。这种倒行逆施的行为应当被世界看清。我们呼吁全球爱好自由与和平的人民共同关注，更呼吁文明世界的领导人站在历史与文明的高度，同渴望自由的中国人一道，推动这个民族早日走出黑暗，融入人类文明的自由浪潮。
编辑：李晶 校对：周敏 翻译：戈冰
Why Block the Country’s Borders?
Author: Huang Jianqiang
When the new version of the “Exit and Entry Management Regulations” was about to take effect, public opinion both at home and abroad was in an uproar. Some analyzed it from technical details, some approached it from legal institutions, and others attempted to search for answers in historical patterns. However, most of these analyses were simply evading the weight of the core issue. The Xi Jinping regime’s fundamental purpose in initiating a policy of “closing the country and locking the borders” is singular: to preserve power.
Why does a dictator who already holds all power firmly in his hands still feel deep anxiety? The logic of a dictator is always different from that of ordinary people: when rules are broken to achieve reelection, lifelong tenure becomes a necessity, because stepping down inevitably means facing a political purging; and when lifelong tenure becomes reality, hereditary succession becomes the sole guarantee, for otherwise the entire interest group and family will face total ruin. The most fragile moments of China’s successive feudal dynasties were often the window periods of power transitions—and this is precisely the core issue that a dictator fears most and focuses on most acutely.
Some believe that economic collapse, foreign capital flight, and intensifying unemployment will spark a revolution. But reality, I fear, is not so. The CCP ruling clique has never taken the people’s suffering to heart. Holding the barrels of guns and the propaganda machinery, an autocratic regime possesses ten thousand means to suppress unarmed commoners. An even more brutal logic lies in this: economic recession and the deprivation of livelihoods are, on the contrary, necessary conditions for realizing hereditary power and absolute control.
When social resources become extremely scarce, and food together with means of subsistence are gathered back under a centralized food rationing system, “only by being obedient can you eat your fill” becomes the sole law of survival. In the face of hunger, dignity, ideals, and pursuits are all crushed by the instinct for survival. The submissive are allocated meager rations, while dissidents face the fate of marginalization or even purging. Pushing society into a state of military control or semi-military control is the optimal solution for an autocratic regime to consolidate its rule.
To implement this plan, the first step is naturally to block the country’s borders.
In the past few decades of reform and opening up, China produced a class that possesses assets, is well-educated, and holds an international perspective. They have been exposed to universal values and free civilization, deeply understand the flaws of the system, and yearn for the nation to transition toward modern civilization. They have ideas, wealth, and capability, and therefore inevitably become the greatest obstacle to dictatorial hereditary succession.
Blocking the country’s borders is meant to trap them within the system. Political campaigns such as “retroactive investigations going back twenty years” are precisely custom-tailored for this class. Plundering their wealth under the banner of “common prosperity,” subsequently trampling upon their dignity, and ultimately dragging them back to the same survival plight as the general public. Stripping them of their ability to resist, clearing the obstacles on the road to hereditary succession.
In tandem with physical blockades is the thorough severance of information and ideas. Further tightening cross-border network connections, cutting off internal and external information exchanges, utilizing internet water armies and bought-off opinion leaders to direct wind directions, and manufacturing false narratives to brainwash the masses—all of this is merely the tip of the iceberg.
Today’s ruling logic places the modern rights of all citizens in opposition, forcefully dragging the nation back into the shadow of feudal hereditary succession. Such perverse actions should be clearly seen by the world. We call on freedom-loving and peace-loving people worldwide to pay common attention, and even more so, we call on leaders of the civilized world to stand at the height of history and civilization, joining with Chinese people who yearn for freedom, to push this nation to step out of the darkness at an early date and merge into the wave of freedom of human civilization.
Editor: Li Jing Proofreader: Zhou Min Translator: Ge Bing
