作者：蔡诗文

致台湾的年轻人：

我来自中国、爱台湾。有些话想写下来给你们，希望我们可以有机会坐下来谈谈。

首先我想说，我能理解你们累了。从小到大，每一次选举都被说成“关键的一战”，每隔一阵子新闻就提醒你，对岸又在演习了。另一边，你只是想努力过幸福的日子。

这份疲惫，民调里看得见。2024大选之前，2023年6月台湾民意基金会的一份民调，已经把这种年轻人的心情表现得非常明显：20至24岁选民中，柯文哲的支持度高达67%，远高于赖清德的8.8%和侯友宜的7.4%；25至34岁中，柯文哲也以40%领先赖清德的28%和侯友宜的13%。 “不要再吵统独，先顾好我们的生活”，说中了很多那时候台湾年轻人的心声。

柯文哲涉案后，民众党的好感度明显回落。《美丽岛电子报》2026年4月民调中，20至29岁对民进党的反感度一度达54.5%；但到6月，民进党在这个年龄层的好感（44.3%）已略高于反感（40.3%），反而是国民党与民众党的反感度都超过五成。不过，两次民调中都没有任何政党在年轻人中获得过半好感。许多台湾年轻人并没有稳定倒向哪一党。这透露的或许是一种对政党政治的疲惫。

想要一份稳定的工作、买得起的房子、可以规划的人生，这些愿望一点错都没有。你们当然可以厌倦那些反复出现的政治口号，也可以不想每天追着选举和两岸新闻跑。政治本来就不该吞掉一个人的生活。

但也正因为你们已经很累了，我更想把一些我亲眼见过的事情讲给你们听。不是为了让你们更焦虑，也不是要你们活在战争的恐惧里。怎么看、怎么选择，由你们判断。

我眼中的台湾

在台湾，特别是在台南，常让我停下脚步的是街角那些小店。很多已经开了几十年，传到了第二代、第三代。他们不急着扩张，只是一年又一年把同一件事做好。一个人敢把一辈子押在一间小店上，是因为他相信今天的用心，明天还会有收获。

十多年前，我在花莲旅行时请过一位导游。他支持国民党。大概知道我从中国来，他一路上讲了不少“两岸一家亲”的话。我心里并不认同，只是没有说出口。但让我记住他的，是另一件事。

那天天气不好，他带我去的景点很快就逛完了。他大概觉得收了钱却没让我玩尽兴，过意不去，就多开了一个小时的车，带我去一处只有当地人才知道的天然硫磺温泉。看到我喜欢那里，他脸上露出了一种松了口气的笑。这些年想起台湾，我常想起那个表情。这份善良，跟他支持哪个政党无关。

这些在台湾再平常不过的事，在我的国家却从来不是理所当然。在中国，一间开了二十年的小店，可能因为一纸通知就得关门，没有人需要向你解释。2021年突如其来的“双减”政策，几乎摧毁了中国原本庞大的学科类课外培训行业。公开挑战官方叙事的人，轻则被约谈、重则坐牢。2020年初，武汉医生李文亮在同学群里提醒大家防范一种新型冠状病毒，被警方以发布、传播不实信息等理由训诫，一个月后，他死于新冠。2015年的“709大抓捕”中，大批维权律师、法律工作者和公民被带走、约谈或拘押，律师王全璋后来以“颠覆国家政权罪”被判刑。在中国，大多数人都学会了先活下来，别的以后再说。

同样的年轻人，不同的命运

在台湾，你们可以公开批评市长、批评总统，可以上街抗议，第二天照常上班上课。2014年春天，台湾的学生占领了立法院。不管怎么评价那场运动，参与的人后来面对的是选票、舆论和法院。

同一年秋天，香港的年轻人撑起雨伞，在街头坚持了79天，要的是真正的普选。那一年，17岁的周庭是学民思潮的发言人。2020年8月，她因涉嫌违反国安法被捕，同年12月又因参与未经批准集结被判刑入狱。出狱后，她的护照被扣了将近三年。2023年她申请出国读书。她后来表示，在取回护照、获准离境前，国安人员陪同她去了深圳参观改革开放展览；回来后，她还亲笔写信，感谢警方安排她了解“祖国的伟大发展”。她说，这样的信，那几个月里写过好几封。到了多伦多，她宣布不再回港报到。不久，她被香港警方列入通缉名单。

邹幸彤是执业律师，也是支联会前副主席，长期参与每年的维园六四悼念活动。2021年，她因为呼吁市民去悼念而入狱。法庭上，她说如果一定要讲“煽惑”，那是香港人煽惑她按良知行事，她为此受刑，无怨无悔。许多人离开香港的那几年，她留了下来。2026年9月11日，她以“煽动颠覆国家政权罪”被判监禁7年3个月。

在香港，这就是为普选、为一根蜡烛说话的代价。

2022年11月，乌鲁木齐一场火灾之后，中国各地的年轻人举起了白纸。纸上一个字都没写，因为他们知道，写什么都可能是罪。事后，参与者、年轻女孩曹芷馨在被带走前录下视频，请大家追问她们为什么被捕，不要让她们无声无息地消失。一位拍下上海白纸抗议的纪录片导演陈品霖，因为制作并发布纪录片《乌鲁木齐中路》，被以‘寻衅滋事罪’判处三年半有期徒刑。。

同样是年轻人，同样想为自己的未来说话，在台湾、在香港、在中国，换来的却是完全不同的命运。

在那堵墙里面，一直有人在看着你们

我不怪身在中国、认为统一是唯一答案的许多人。一个人从小听见什么故事、看见什么世界，会影响他怎样理解自己的国家和未来。很多人习惯了从国家、民族和集体的角度思考，却不知道一个普通人也可以问一句：我自己想要什么样的生活？当权力又可以随时、任意地介入，而普通人很难要求它解释和负责，久而久之，人就会学会先顺着大局走。

中国也有另一些人。他们不是多数，但他们在。2019年香港的年轻人上街时，有数百位身在中国大陆的大学生手写字条向香港致敬，并附上学生证或身份证的局部照片证明自己真的来自中国。后来有人把这些照片整理成了一段视频：https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mKArxVyqFOs

所以，当我说希望这样的地方能被好好守住，我并不是觉得你们肩上有什么历史使命。你们没有义务替那一边的人负责，更没有义务为了证明什么而牺牲自己的生活。

我只是想告诉你们：你们拥有的这些选择，对有些暂时没有选择的人而言，远比你们想象得珍贵。你们可以投票，可以批评政府，可以上街，可以说“不”，也可以什么政治口号都不相信。

这些事情对你们来说也许已经普通到不值得一提，但正因为普通，它才值得被珍惜。

一场不只关乎市政的选举

11月28日是九合一地方选举，22个县市同一天改选首长和地方民代。这是2025年大罢免之后的第一场全国性选举，也普遍被看作2028年总统大选的前哨战。中选会估计，这次的首投族有60多万人。

地方选举谈的多半是托育、捷运、市场整修，正是你们最在乎的生活。但今年在台北，生活和两岸刚好缠在了一起。

现任市长蒋万安争取连任，民进党在5月征召立委沈伯洋挑战。沈伯洋是北京点名的对象：国台办在2024年10月把他列入“台独顽固分子”清单；2025年10月，重庆市公安局又以他“发起、建立‘台独’分裂组织黑熊学院”等为由，以涉嫌“分裂国家罪”对他立案侦查。一个台湾公民在台湾参选，却被中国的公安列为刑事追诉对象。

蒋万安有他的市政成绩，沈伯洋有他的政见，选民本来就该用市政的标准检验两个人。我提这件事，不是要替谁拉票，而是因为它让我看到，北京的施压不只靠海峡上的军机，也会伸向台湾人自己的选举。你们可以批评自己的政府，可以换掉自己的市长，也可以讨厌所有的政党。你们可以什么政治口号都不相信。但有一件事，我希望你们永远自己决定：谁可以被选上，谁不可以。你们不应该让北京决定你们应该害怕谁、不能选谁。请你们照常、不受恐吓地去投票，投给自己认为对的人。

这次年轻人的票也特别难预测。台北市长选战中，不同民调甚至给出了相当不同的结果。5月TVBS民调显示，在20至29岁有投票意愿的台北选民中，蒋万安以60%领先沈伯洋的37%；到了9月，信民两岸研究协会的民调却显示，20至29岁沈伯洋以42.8%领先蒋万安的37.8%，30至39岁也是沈伯洋领先。

两份民调的方法并不相同：TVBS只用市内电话抽样，并只统计有投票意愿者；信民民调则加入手机样本，对象是全体成年市民。因此，这种差距究竟有多少来自真实的民意变化、有多少来自抽样方式，目前仍难判断。

但至少有一点很清楚：台湾年轻人的票没有被任何一个政党锁住。他们可以因为市政投票，也可以因为两岸问题投票；可以支持这个人，也可以下一次换一个人。

这种“看人不看党”是健康的挑剔而不是冷漠。我在中国时从来没有机会这样挑剔。在香港，办一场初选可以换来十年牢狱；在中国，举起一张白纸可能让一个人彻底消失。在台湾，你们只需要走进投票所。投给谁，是你们的事。

最值得守住的，是选择

很多社会都走过这段路：越富足、越人道，人就越重视自己的生活，越不想谈冲突和牺牲。人人都能安心追求自己的幸福，这本来就是值得追求的。

所以我越来越觉得，厌倦政治没有错。真正值得警惕的，是有一天连“我想过什么样的生活”都不再能够由自己决定。

去年底有一份民调，里面一个数字我看了很久：对政府编列的2026年度9,495亿新台币国防预算，20到24岁的年轻人有54%赞成，只有22%不赞成。说自己厌倦政治的是你们，在守护这座岛这件事上表态最清楚的，也是你们。厌倦政治，和不在乎这座岛，从来就是两回事。

我在你们身上看到的，是温柔，也是坚强。台湾的年轻人，我祝福你们。

一个爱台湾的中国人

2026年10月4日

民调资料来源：

1. 台湾民意基金会，2023年6月民调，调查时间：2023年6月12日至13日。

https://www.tpof.org/%E7%B2%BE%E9%81%B8%E6%96%87%E7%AB%A0/2023%E5%B9%B46%E6%9C%88%E3%80%8C%E6%94%BF%E9%BB%A8%E7%AB%B6%E7%88%AD%E3%80%81%E7%B8%BD%E7%B5%B1%E8%81%B2%E6%9C%9B%E8%88%872024%E5%8F%B0%E7%81%A3%E7%B8%BD%E7%B5%B1%E9%81%B8%E8%88%89%E3%80%8D/ 

2. 美丽岛电子报，2026年4月国政民调，调查时间：2026年4月22日至24日。

https://my-formosa.com.tw/DOC_225352.htm

3.美丽岛电子报，2026年6月国政民调，调查时间：2026年6月22日至24日。

https://m.my-formosa.com.tw/DOC_226926.htm

4. TVBS民调中心，2026年5月台北市长民调，调查时间：2026年5月21日至26日。

https://news.tvbs.com.tw/politics/3214850

5. 信民两岸研究协会，2026年9月台北市长民调，调查时间：2026年9月16日至18日。

https://news.tvbs.com.tw/politics/4026020

6. 台湾民意基金会，2025年11月国防预算民调，调查时间：2025年11月10至12日。

https://www.tpof.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/20251116-%E3%80%8C%E5%9C%8B%E4%BA%BA%E5%B0%8D2026%E8%B6%85%E9%AB%98%E5%9C%8B%E9%98%B2%E9%A0%90%E7%AE%97%E7%9A%84%E6%85%8B%E5%BA%A6%E3%80%8D%E5%8F%B0%E7%81%A3%E6%B0%91%E6%84%8F%E5%9F%BA%E9%87%91%E6%9C%8311%E6%9C%88%E5%8D%B3%E6%99%82%E6%B0%91%E8%AA%BF%E4%B9%8B2.pdf

编辑：张致君 校对：孔祥庆 翻译：周敏

A Letter to Taiwan’s Youth

Author:Cai Shiwen

To the youth of Taiwan:

I come from China and love Taiwan. There are some words I want to write down for you, hoping we can have the opportunity to sit down and talk.

First of all, I want to say that I can understand you are tired. From childhood to adulthood, every single election has been described as a “decisive battle,” and every once in a while the news reminds you that the opposite shore is conducting military drills again. On the other side, you just want to strive to live a happy life.

This exhaustion can be seen in polls. Before the 2024 general election, a poll by the Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation in June 2023 expressed this sentiment of young people very clearly: among voters aged 20 to 24, Ko Wen-je’s support rate reached as high as 67%, far higher than Lai Ching-te’s 8.8% and Hou Yu-ih’s 7.4%; among those aged 25 to 34, Ko Wen-je also led with 40%, compared to Lai Ching-te’s 28% and Hou Yu-ih’s 13%. “Stop arguing about unification and independence; take care of our lives first”—this spoke for the aspirations of many Taiwanese youth at that time.

After Ko Wen-je became embroiled in legal cases, the Taiwan People’s Party’s favorability noticeably rebounded downward. According to a Formosa Electronic Newsletter poll in April 2026, the unfavorability rating of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) among those aged 20 to 29 reached 54.5% at one point; but by June, the DPP’s favorability in this age group (44.3%) was already slightly higher than its unfavorability (40.3%), whereas the unfavorability ratings of both the Kuomintang (KMT) and the Taiwan People’s Party exceeded fifty percent. However, in both polls, no political party gained over 50% favorability among young people. Many Taiwanese youth did not stably lean toward any single party. What this reveals is perhaps a kind of exhaustion with party politics.

Wanting a stable job, an affordable house, and a life that can be planned—these wishes have zero mistakes. You are certainly entitled to grow weary of those repeatedly appearing political slogans, and you can choose not to chase after elections and cross-strait news every day. Politics was never supposed to swallow a person’s life.

But precisely because you are already very tired, I even more want to tell you some things I have seen with my own eyes. This is not to make you more anxious, nor is it to make you live in the fear of war. How to view it and how to choose is for you to judge.

Taiwan in My Eyes

In Taiwan, especially in Tainan, what often makes me stop in my tracks are those small shops on street corners. Many have been open for decades, passed down to the second and third generations. They are not in a rush to expand; they simply do the exact same thing well year after year. A person dares to stake their entire lifetime on a small shop because they believe that today’s dedication will still reap a harvest tomorrow.

More than ten years ago, when I was traveling in Hualien, I hired a tour guide. He supported the KMT. Knowing roughly that I came from China, he spoke quite a bit of “cross-strait family” talk along the way. Inside I did not agree, but I simply did not say it out of my mouth. Yet what made me remember him was another matter.

The weather that day was bad, and the scenic spot he took me to was finished visiting very quickly. He probably felt embarrassed for collecting money without letting me enjoy myself to the fullest, so he drove an extra hour to take me to a natural sulfur hot spring known only to locals. Seeing that I liked it there, a relieved smile appeared on his face. Whenever I think of Taiwan these years, I often recall that expression. This kindness had nothing to do with which political party he supported.

These things, which are ordinary to the extreme in Taiwan, have never been taken for granted in my country. In China, a small shop open for twenty years might have to shut down because of a single piece of paper notice, and no one needs to explain anything to you. The sudden “double reduction” policy in 2021 almost destroyed China’s once-massive subject-matter tutoring industry. Those who publicly challenge official narratives face being summoned for talks at best, or imprisonment at worst. In early 2020, Wuhan doctor Li Wenliang warned everyone in a classmate chat group to guard against a new coronavirus, and was reprimanded by the police for reasons including publishing and spreading untruthful information; a month later, he died of COVID-19. In the “July 9 crackdown” of 2015, a large number of human rights lawyers, legal workers, and citizens were taken away, summoned, or detained; lawyer Wang Quanzhang was later sentenced under the crime of “subversion of state power.” In China, most people have learned to survive first and talk about everything else later.

The Same Youth, Different Fates

In Taiwan, you can publicly criticize the mayor, criticize the president, take to the streets to protest, and go to work and school as usual the next day. In the spring of 2014, Taiwanese students occupied the Legislative Yuan. No matter how one evaluates that movement, those who participated later faced ballots, public opinion, and the courts.

In the autumn of that same year, Hong Kong’s youth raised umbrellas and persisted on the streets for 79 days, demanding genuine universal suffrage. That year, 17-year-old Agnes Chow was the spokesperson for Scholarism. In August 2020, she was arrested for allegedly violating the National Security Law, and in December of the same year, she was sentenced and imprisoned for participating in an unauthorized assembly. After her release from prison, her passport was withheld for nearly three years. In 2023, she applied to study abroad. She later stated that before retrieving her passport and being permitted to leave the country, national security personnel accompanied her to visit the Reform and Opening-Up Exhibition in Shenzhen; after returning, she even wrote a handwritten letter thanking the police for arranging for her to understand “the great development of the motherland.” She said that she had written several such letters during those few months. Upon arriving in Toronto, she announced she would no longer return to Hong Kong to report. Soon after, she was listed on the wanted list by the Hong Kong police.

Cyd Ho is a practicing lawyer and also the former vice-chairperson of the Hong Kong Alliance in Support of Patriotic Democratic Movements of China, long participating in the annual Victoria Park June 4th candlelight vigil. In 2021, she was sent to prison for calling on citizens to attend the vigil. In court, she said that if one must speak of “incitement,” it was the people of Hong Kong who incited her to act according to her conscience, and she suffered punishment for this with no regrets and no remorse. During those years when many people left Hong Kong, she stayed behind. On September 11, 2026, she was sentenced to 7 years and 3 months in prison under the crime of “inciting subversion of state power.”

In Hong Kong, this is the price for demanding universal suffrage or speaking for a single candle.

In November 2022, following a fire in Urumqi, youth across China raised blank sheets of paper. Not a single word was written on the paper because they knew writing anything could be a crime. Afterward, participant and young girl Cao Zhixin recorded a video before being taken away, asking everyone to keep questioning why they were arrested and not to let them disappear soundlessly. A documentary filmmaker named Chen Pinlin who filmed the white paper protests in Shanghai was sentenced to three and a half years in prison under the crime of “picking quarrels and provoking trouble” for producing and releasing the documentary 乌鲁木齐中路 (Middle Urumqi Road).

The same youth, with the same desire to speak for their own future—yet in Taiwan, in Hong Kong, and in China, what they get in return are completely different fates.

Inside That Wall, Someone Has Always Been Watching You

I do not blame the many people inside China who believe unification is the only answer. What stories a person hears and what world they see from childhood will influence how they understand their country and future. Many people are accustomed to thinking from the perspectives of the country, the nation, and the collective, yet they do not know that an ordinary person can also ask: What kind of life do I myself want? When power can once again arbitrarily and at any time intervene, and ordinary people find it hard to demand explanations and accountability, over time, people learn to flow along with the grand situation first.

There are also other people in China. They are not the majority, but they exist. When Hong Kong’s youth took to the streets in 2019, hundreds of university students residing in mainland China wrote handwritten notes to pay tribute to Hong Kong, attaching partial photos of their student IDs or identity cards to prove they genuinely came from China. Later, someone compiled these photos into a video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mKArxVyqFOs

Therefore, when I say I hope such a place can be well guarded, I do not feel you carry any historic mission on your shoulders. You have no obligation to be responsible for the people on that side, and even less obligation to sacrifice your life just to prove something.

I merely want to tell you: the choices you possess are, to some people who temporarily have no choices, far more precious than you imagine. You can vote, you can criticize the government, you can take to the streets, you can say “no,” and you can choose not to believe in any political slogans.

These matters may have become so ordinary to you that they are not worth mentioning, but precisely because they are ordinary, they deserve to be cherished.

An Election Not Just Concerning Municipal Administration

November 28 is the nine-in-one local elections, with 22 counties and cities electing mayors and local representatives on the same day. This is the first nationwide election since the mass recall movement of 2025, and is also widely viewed as the opening battle for the 2028 presidential election. The Central Election Commission estimates that there are over 600,000 first-time voters this time.

Local elections mostly talk about childcare, metro systems, and market renovations—precisely the aspects of life you care about the most. But this year in Taipei, life and cross-strait relations happened to intertwine.

Incumbent Mayor Chiang Wan-an is striving for re-election, while the DPP recruited Legislator Kuma Pao (沈伯洋) in May to challenge him. Pao is a target named by Beijing: the Taiwan Affairs Office listed him in the “Taiwan independence diehards” list in October 2024; in October 2025, the Chongqing Municipal Public Security Bureau further placed him under criminal investigation on suspicion of the crime of “seceding the country” under grounds such as “initiating and establishing the ‘Taiwan independence’ secessionist organization Kuroshio Academy (黑熊学院).” A Taiwanese citizen running for office in Taiwan is nevertheless listed as a criminal prosecution target by China’s public security organs.

Chiang Wan-an has his municipal performance, and Pao has his platform; voters should naturally examine both individuals using municipal standards. I bring this matter up not to canvass votes for anyone, but because it lets me see that Beijing’s pressure relies not merely on warplanes across the strait, but also extends into Taiwanese people’s own elections. You can criticize your own government, you can replace your own mayor, and you can hate all political parties. You can choose not to believe in any political slogans. But there is one matter I hope you will always decide for yourselves: who can be elected, and who cannot. You should not let Beijing decide whom you should fear and whom you cannot vote for. Please go vote as usual, free from intimidation, and cast your ballot for the person you believe is right.

This time, young people’s votes are also particularly hard to predict. In the Taipei mayoral race, different polls even yielded quite different results. A TVBS poll in May showed that among Taipei voters aged 20 to 29 with voting intentions, Chiang Wan-an led Pao with 60% to 37%; by September, a poll by the Shinmin Cross-Strait Research Association showed that among 20 to 29-year-olds, Pao led Chiang Wan-an 42.8% to 37.8%, with Pao leading among 30 to 39-year-olds as well.

The methodologies of the two polls are not identical: TVBS used landline telephone sampling only and counted only those with voting intentions; the Shinmin poll added mobile phone samples and targeted all adult citizens. Therefore, how much of this gap stems from genuine shifts in public opinion and how much stems from sampling methods remains hard to judge at present.

Yet at least one point is very clear: Taiwanese youth’s votes are not locked down by any political party. They can vote based on municipal administration, or they can vote based on cross-strait issues; they can support this person, or switch to another person next time.

This “looking at the individual rather than the party” is a healthy fastidiousness rather than apathy. When I was in China, I never had the opportunity to be fastidious like this. In Hong Kong, holding a primary election can earn one ten years in prison; in China, raising a blank sheet of paper can make a person vanish entirely. In Taiwan, you only need to step into a polling station. Whom to vote for is your business.

What Most Deserves to Be Guarded Is Choice

Many societies have walked this road: the more affluent and humane people become, the more they value their own lives, and the more they wish not to talk about conflict and sacrifice. When everyone can peacefully pursue their own happiness, this in itself is worth pursuing.

Therefore, I increasingly feel that growing weary of politics is not wrong. What truly deserves vigilance is the day when even “what kind of life I want to live” can no longer be decided by oneself.

At the end of last year, there was a poll containing a figure I looked at for a long time: regarding the 949.5 billion New Taiwan Dollars defense budget compiled by the government for fiscal year 2026, 54% of youth aged 20 to 24 approved, while only 22% disapproved. Those who said they were weary of politics are you; those who expressed themselves most clearly on guarding this island are also you. Growing weary of politics, and not caring about this island, have always been two entirely different things.

What I see in you is gentleness, yet also strength. Youth of Taiwan, I bless you.

A Chinese Person Who Loves Taiwan

October 4, 2026

Poll Sources:

Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation, June 2023 Poll, survey dates: June 12–13, 2023.

Formosa Electronic Newsletter, April 2026 National Affairs Poll, survey dates: April 22–24, 2026.

Formosa Electronic Newsletter, June 2026 National Affairs Poll, survey dates: June 22–24, 2026.

TVBS Poll Center, May 2026 Taipei Mayoral Poll, survey dates: May 21–26, 2026.

Shinmin Cross-Strait Research Association, September 2026 Taipei Mayoral Poll, survey dates: September 16–18, 2026.

Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation, November 2025 Defense Budget Poll, survey dates: November 10–12, 2025.

Editor: Zhang Zhijun    Proofreader: Kong Xiangqing    Translator: Zhou Min