作者：關永傑       

10月10日是中華民國115年國慶。舊金山灣區多個城市舉行了不同形式的慶祝活動，而我們選擇了另一種方式表達我們的支持。除了向台灣人民送上誠摯的節日祝福之外，我們還發表了一份公開的《支持台灣民主自由聯合宣言》。

同為華語群體，我們這些出生、生活在中國的人，由衷地羨慕台灣人民。台灣今天所擁有的民主自由狀態，以及在平等、法治、經濟發展、人民福祉上所取得的驕人成就，不僅令我們羨慕與嚮往，更是整個華語世界文明的驕傲。然而，在共慶國慶的時刻，鑑於目前複雜多變的國際形勢，我們也不能掉以輕心。作為共同追求民主、捍衛自由的同道，我想提出以下兩點危機提醒：

第一，借鑑香港血淚教訓：絕不能相信中共的任何統戰承諾

請大家務必清醒地認識到：中共是一個毫無契約精神的組織。當年的《中英聯合聲明》被他們一句“歷史文件”徹底撕毀。如今的香港，自由與法治被蠶食，經濟實力大幅倒退。香港的現狀，就是中共背棄承諾所造成的結果，它是台灣最血淋淋的反面教材！大家必須時刻保持最高警覺，絕不要接受任何形式的以“一國兩制”為名的政治安排。

第二，看穿武統虛張聲勢，更需嚴防“非傳統超限戰”的內部瓦解

要跨越上百海里的台灣海峽進行跨海登陸作戰，兩棲登陸與後勤保障難度極大。中共內部官僚與軍工系統“欺上瞞下”的腐敗，可能導致部分軍備的實際性能與宣傳存在差異。普京高估自身軍事實力，是導致原計畫閃擊烏克蘭，最終深陷泥潭四年多仍未結束的重要原因之一。

常規戰爭方面中共可能力有未逮，但不要忘記，毫無底線是獨裁專制政權的特質，所以，在戰術上必須死守防線，嚴防中共的非傳統手段：

——非常規威脅： 警惕化學、生物等非常規手段的潛在風險；

——輿論認知戰： 嚴防鋪天蓋地的虛假資訊干擾；

——內部滲透： 嚴防中共用金錢或其他利益進行滲透，收買台灣內部個別立場不堅定的軍事要員、政治人物、網紅或明星，從內部削弱抗敵意志。

兩岸的根本問題，不是什麼血濃於水的宏大敘事，而是正義與邪惡、文明與野蠻、民主與專制的體制之爭。台灣的民主自由，是整個華語地區不滅的希望。希望台灣在民主自由的道路上永遠堅定、自信地走下去！

中國駐舊金山總領館門前，從左到右：關永傑，唐奇，蔣書清，陳森鋒，惠汝濤，張繼順

編輯：鍾然 校对：熊辩 翻译：周敏

Congratulations to the Republic of China on a Happy Birthday, as Well as a Painstaking Reminder to the People of Taiwan to Heighten Their Vigilance

Author: Guan Yongjie

Abstract: Supporting Taiwan’s democracy and freedom, guarding against the CCP breaking its promises and making military threats, preventing cognitive warfare and internal infiltration, firmly defending democratic institutions, and safeguarding the hope for freedom across the entire Chinese-speaking world.

October 10 is the 115th National Day of the Republic of China. Multiple cities in the San Francisco Bay Area held various forms of celebration activities, while we chose another way to express our support. In addition to sending sincere holiday wishes to the people of Taiwan, we also published an open “Joint Declaration Supporting Taiwan’s Democracy and Freedom.”

As fellow Chinese-speaking groups, those of us born and living in China sincerely envy the people of Taiwan. The state of democracy and freedom that Taiwan possesses today, as well as the remarkable achievements it has attained in equality, the rule of law, economic development, and public welfare, are not only envied and longed for by us, but are also the pride of civilization in the entire Chinese-speaking world. However, at a time of celebrating the National Day together, given the current complex and volatile international situation, we cannot take things lightly. As fellow travelers jointly pursuing democracy and defending freedom, I would like to put forward the following two crisis reminders:

First, learn from Hong Kong’s lesson of blood and tears: Never believe any of the CCP’s united front promises.

Everyone must clearly realize: the CCP is an organization completely devoid of any spirit of contract. Back then, the Sino-British Joint Declaration was completely torn up by them with a single phrase “historical document.” In today’s Hong Kong, freedom and the rule of law have been eroded, and economic strength has suffered a drastic retreat. The current situation of Hong Kong is the result caused by the CCP breaking its promises—it is Taiwan’s most bloody negative textbook! Everyone must maintain the highest vigilance at all times, and never accept any form of political arrangement under the name of “one country, two systems.”

Second, see through the bluff of reunification by force, and even more strictly guard against internal collapse through “non-traditional warfare beyond limits.”

Crossing the Taiwan Strait of over a hundred nautical miles to conduct cross-sea amphibious landing operations entails extreme difficulty in amphibious landing and logistical support. The corruption of “deceiving superiors and deluding inferiors” within the CCP’s bureaucratic and military-industrial systems may lead to discrepancies between the actual performance of certain armaments and their propaganda. Putin overestimating his own military strength is one of the important reasons leading to the original plan of a blitzkrieg against Ukraine ultimately falling into a quagmire for over four years and still not ending.

In terms of conventional warfare, the CCP may fall short in capability, but do not forget that having no bottom line is the defining characteristic of autocratic regimes. Therefore, tactically, line of defense must be strictly guarded to rigorously defend against the CCP’s non-traditional means:

——Non-traditional threats: Guard against the potential risks of non-traditional means such as chemical and biological weapons;

——Public opinion cognitive warfare: Strictly guard against the interference of overwhelming false information;

——Internal infiltration: Strictly guard against the CCP using money or other interests to infiltrate, buying off individual military figures, political figures, influencers, or celebrities inside Taiwan whose stances are not firm, so as to weaken the will to resist the enemy from within.

The fundamental issue between the two sides of the strait is not any grand narrative of blood being thicker than water, but a systemic conflict between justice and evil, civilization and barbarism, democracy and autocracy. Taiwan’s democracy and freedom are the inextinguishable hope of the entire Chinese-speaking region. May Taiwan walk firmly and confidently on the path of democracy and freedom forever!

In front of the Chinese Consulate General in San Francisco, from left to right: Guan Yongjie, Tang Qi, Jiang Shuqing, Chen Senfeng, Hui Rutao, Zhang Jishun

Editor: Zhong Ran    Proofreader: Xiong Bian    Translator: Zhou Min