作者：刘炳良 编辑：冯仍 校对：程筱筱 翻译：戈冰
习近平总书记：
您好！
我是一名离开中国逃亡海外的中国公民，中国民主党党员。今天以一个关心中国未来，心系国家兴衰的公民身份，向您进言。
目前的中国，地方不敢言实情，专家不敢讲真话，官员以“不出事”为最高追求，百姓生活看不到希望，社会阶层固化，上升通道不畅，经济萎靡，民生凋敝，民怨沸腾，各种社会隐患聚集。
长期实行的计划生育政策对人口结构造成深远影响，使经济与社会结构问题更加复杂，矛盾不断叠加。
中国，正站在一个历史的分水岭上，向前一步，可能是制度转型与社会和解；向后一步，则可能是长期停滞与结构性风险大爆发。作为当下中国大权独揽的领导人，您无可回避地成为这一时代走向的决定性人物。
历史反复证明，个人权力越集中，体制本身越脆弱。清洗与反清洗、忠诚竞赛与恐惧治理，最终并不会带来真正的稳定，只会不断抬高政治风险。
您比任何人都清楚：在高度集权体制下，没有“绝对安全的自己人”。从苏联的斯大林到纳粹德国的希特勒，从中共历史上的延安整风到“文革”，权力清洗最终都会反噬，造成信息失真、官僚躺平与系统性误判。近期军委系统的人事整肃，再次印证了权力高度集中所带来的结构性风险。这种风险并不以个人意志为转移。
过去十余年，您以反腐之名，整肃、集权和重构党政军体系，完成了自改革开放以来最大规模的一次权力重组。今天的中国，已经进入“唯我独尊”的政治现实：重大方向由您主导，核心人事由您决定，制度边界亦在您主导之下。正因为如此，历史也把一种前所未有的选择权，交到了您的手中。而且历史现实说明，只有在权力高度集中的阶段，制度转型才最有可能以较低代价完成。
改革开放之所以能够启动，并非因为制度本身宽容，而是因为邓小平拥有压倒性权威；台湾的民主转型之所以避免内战与清算，也并非因为国民党自动放权，而是因为蒋经国在威权体制巅峰时期，选择了“向前一步”。
今天的您，所处的位置，客观上更接近蒋经国，而不是戈尔巴乔夫。
您已经完成了对党、军、政、意识形态的全面掌控；没有山头可以公开挑战您，目前缺乏制度化的权力更替机制。正是在这种情况下，如果选择制度性松绑、权力可逆、司法独立、社会自治的渐进改革，反而最有可能避免激烈震荡。
“蒋经国之路”不是背叛，而是历史升级。蒋经国先生并未否定国民党的历史，也没有清算蒋介石；他做的，只是承认一个现实：威权体制已经走到尽头，继续独裁只会把国家拖入深渊。他解除戒严、开放党禁、允许反对力量合法存在，把“权力退场”设计成一个制度过程，而不是街头对抗。结果是：台湾完成了和平转型，执政党下台却未覆灭，社会避免了系统性报复。
这条路，并不要求您否定中国共产党，也不要求您“自我清算”。相反，它意味着：
• 把党从“无限权力者”转变为“制度竞争者”；
• 把领导人从“终身责任者”转变为“历史过渡者”；
• 把国家从“恐惧维稳”转变为“规则治理”。
这不是失败，而是政治成熟。
自由、民主是大势所趋，不可阻挡。独裁没有出路！全球社会并不反对中国的发展，真正令人担忧的是，一个缺乏可预测性、纠错机制与和平更替路径的大国。当权力缺乏和平更替机制，任何个人判断失误，都会被放大为国家灾难。
与此同时，中国社会本身也在发生深层变化：
• 中产阶层要求确定性而非口号；
• 年轻世代不再相信“牺牲换未来”；
• 地方财政、人口结构、科技封锁，正在挤压旧模式的生存空间。
继续收紧，只会推迟矛盾的爆发，却无法消除风险。
历史对强人的评价，从来不取决于他掌权的年数，而取决于他是否在关键时刻，选择了对国家对人民最有力的选项！您已经证明了自己“集中权力”的能力，接下来，历史真正关心的是，您是否愿意为中国建立一个不依赖“下一个明君”的制度，是否像蒋经国先生一样，愿意作中国真正的民主、自由的奠基者，是否愿意让14亿中国人民过上像台湾人一样的民主、富足、有尊严的生活！希望有一天，能在您的努力下，中国能够在不流血、不崩溃、不仇恨的情况下，实现政治转型，给人民以真正的选举权力，实行民主选举，政党轮替，那么您将成为中华民族的伟大功臣而名垂千古！
选择权仍在您手中，但时间窗口正在收窄。愿您在权力巅峰之时，抓住历史机遇，看清历史的方向，顺应历史潮流，为中华民族，为世界，也为自己和后代，作出正确的选择！
向前一步，青史留名！
此致
一个希望中国早日民主自由的普通中国人——刘炳良
An Open Letter to Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China
Author: Liu Bingliang Editor: Feng Reng
Proofreader: Cheng Xiaoxiao Translator: Ge Bing
General Secretary Xi Jinping:
Greetings!
I am a Chinese citizen who fled China to seek refuge overseas, and a member of the China Democracy Party. Today, I address you as a citizen concerned about China’s future and deeply invested in the nation’s rise or fall.
In present-day China, local governments dare not speak the truth, experts dare not speak honestly, officials pursue “avoiding trouble” as their highest goal, the people see no hope in their lives, social strata have solidified, upward mobility is blocked, the economy is sluggish, people’s livelihoods are in decline, public discontent is boiling, and various social risks are accumulating.
The long-standing one-child policy has profoundly impacted demographic structure, further complicating economic and social challenges while compounding existing contradictions.
China now stands at a historic watershed: one step forward could mean systemic transformation and social reconciliation; one step back could lead to prolonged stagnation and an explosive outbreak of structural risks. As the current leader wielding absolute power in China, you have become the decisive figure shaping the trajectory of this era.
History repeatedly demonstrates that the more concentrated personal power becomes, the more fragile the system itself grows. Purges and counter-purges, loyalty contests and governance by fear ultimately fail to deliver genuine stability, only perpetually escalating political risks.
You understand better than anyone: under a highly centralized system, there is no such thing as an “absolutely secure ally.” From Stalin in the Soviet Union to Hitler in Nazi Germany, from the Yan’an Rectification Campaign to the Cultural Revolution in the history of the Chinese Communist Party, power purges invariably backfire, leading to distorted information, bureaucratic complacency, and systemic misjudgments. The recent personnel shake-up within the Central Military Commission system once again underscores the structural risks inherent in extreme power concentration. Such risks are not subject to individual will.
Over the past decade, under the banner of anti-corruption, you have purged, centralized, and restructured the Party, government, and military systems, completing the most extensive realignment of power since the reform and opening-up era. Today’s China has entered a political reality defined by “supreme authority”: major policy directions are guided by you, core personnel decisions are made by you, and institutional boundaries are shaped under your leadership. Precisely because of this, history has placed an unprecedented choice in your hands. Moreover, historical reality demonstrates that institutional transformation is most likely to be achieved at minimal cost only during periods of highly concentrated power.
Reform and opening-up were initiated not because the system itself was tolerant, but because Deng Xiaoping wielded overwhelming authority. Taiwan’s democratic transition avoided civil war and reckoning not because the Kuomintang voluntarily relinquished power, but because Chiang Ching-kuo chose to “take a step forward” at the zenith of the authoritarian regime.
Your current position objectively aligns more closely with Chiang Ching-kuo than with Gorbachev.
You have achieved comprehensive control over the Party, military, government, and ideology; no factional strongholds openly challenge you, and no institutionalized power succession mechanism currently exists. Precisely under these circumstances, opting for gradual reforms—including systemic liberalization, reversible power structures, judicial independence, and social autonomy—holds the greatest potential to avert violent upheaval.
The “Chiang Ching-kuo Path” is not betrayal, but historical advancement. Mr. Chiang Ching-kuo neither denied the KMT’s history nor settled accounts with Chiang Kai-shek; he merely acknowledged a reality: the authoritarian system had reached its end, and continued dictatorship would only drag the nation into an abyss. He lifted martial law, lifted the ban on political parties, and permitted the legal existence of opposition forces. He designed the “exit of power” as an institutional process rather than street confrontation. The result: Taiwan achieved a peaceful transition, the ruling party stepped down without being destroyed, and society avoided systemic retaliation.
This path does not require you to reject the Communist Party of China, nor does it demand you engage in “self-criticism.” On the contrary, it signifies:
• Transforming the Party from an “entity with unlimited power” into a “competitor within the system”;
• Transforming leaders from “lifelong incumbents” into “transitional figures in history”;
• Transforming the state from one that “maintains stability through fear” into one governed by “rules.”
This is not failure, but political maturity.
Freedom and democracy are the inevitable trend, unstoppable. Dictatorship has no future! The global community does not oppose China’s development. What truly concerns us is a major power lacking predictability, error-correction mechanisms, and peaceful succession pathways. When power lacks peaceful succession mechanisms, any individual misjudgment can be amplified into a national catastrophe.
At the same time, profound changes are unfolding within Chinese society itself:
• The middle class demands certainty, not slogans;
• The younger generation no longer believes in “sacrificing today for tomorrow”;
• Local fiscal constraints, demographic shifts, and technological blockades are squeezing the old model’s survival space.
Continuing to tighten control will only delay the eruption of contradictions, not eliminate risks.
History’s judgment of strongmen has never depended on the length of their rule, but on whether they chose the most powerful option for their nation and people at critical moments! You have demonstrated your ability to “centralize power.” What history truly cares about now is whether you are willing to establish a system for China that does not depend on “the next enlightened ruler,” whether you are willing, like Mr. Chiang Ching-kuo, to become the true founder of democracy and freedom in China, and whether you are willing to allow 1.4 billion Chinese people to live democratic, prosperous, and dignified lives like those in Taiwan! May the day come when, through your efforts, China achieves political transformation without bloodshed, collapse, or hatred—granting the people genuine electoral power, implementing democratic elections, and enabling peaceful party rotation. Then you shall be remembered as a great benefactor of the Chinese nation, immortalized throughout the ages!
The choice remains yours, but the window of opportunity is narrowing. May you seize this historic opportunity at the zenith of your power, discern the direction of history, align with its tide, and make the right choice—for the Chinese nation, for the world, and for yourself and future generations!
Take one step forward, and your name shall be enshrined in history!
Sincerely,
An ordinary Chinese citizen who hopes for democracy and freedom in China at the earliest opportunity—Liu Bingliang
