作者：张滨滨 

“世界多极化大势不可逆转”。

这句掷地有声且霸气十足的表态，出自习近平9月1日下午在比什凯克出席“上海合作组织+”会议时的讲话稿。“世界多极化”这个概念虽然不是习近平第一次抛出，但值此上合组织峰会与G20峰会隔空博弈之际，习近平高频次的推销“世界多极化”概念显然是有备而来。 《纽约时报》对此发表的“新闻分析”认为，这是习近平向因特朗普而日益不安的世界传递出“已做好参与塑造未来的准备”的明确信号，核心诉求直指倡导用“有序多极世界”取代目前由美国主导的秩序。

      对于极度依赖领袖指引方向的中共政权来说，习近平对世界的看法就是为“中国外交举旗定向”，对比此前被中共外交系统吹捧为“引领时代潮流和人类前进方向的”构建人类命运共同体，“推进世界多极化，改革完善全球治理 ”完全退去了温和的伪装，可以说是对世界的一种强势宣告，完全不顾及世界的接受程度，未来的全球秩序必须由我主导。

      用中共的官方话术来说，“面对百年变局加速演进、国际形势变乱交织”，“在地缘政治裂痕加深、国际秩序遭受冲击背景下”，习近平倡导的“世界多极化”发展思路，“有力回应了国际社会求和平、促稳定、谋发展的期待，为变乱交织的世界提供了中国方案、中国智慧”。

      不得不说，习近平谋求“有序多极世界”是一个危险信号，特别是“美国正在损害数十年来作为其全球领导力基础的同盟和经济关系”之际，这番高调倡议完全可以视为是对特朗普的一种挑衅，是对二战之后国际秩序的一种颠覆，至少，也等于是近乎直白地宣告，从此中国要与美国平起平坐，共同主导未来国际秩序。

      习近平的“多极世界”野心能否在其没有任期限制的政治生涯兑现尚不得而知，但过往中共历届核心对世界的看法着实深刻影响了中国外交乃至中国社会，从初代核心毛泽东的“三个世界”到邓小平的“韬光养晦”，从江泽民的“经济全球化”到习近平的“人类命运共同体”，再到此番高调祭出“世界多极化”，一个不安于从属地位的中国势必要在国际上争夺更多话语权主导权，重塑国际秩序的过程中也不可避免地要与世界一哥发生正面利益冲突，未来世界各国分边站队在所难免，纵使短期内不会爆发战争，但可能会主导和平的角力。

      确实，以当前的中国国力来看，还不足以撑起习近平称霸世界的野心，不过，今天的中国经济体量和完备的供应链基础，借助美国正铆足劲与民主伙伴深度贸易摩擦和弱化对全球伙伴防御承诺的契机，左右逢源持续拉拢美国的西方盟友和新兴市场伙伴，在国力和全球话语权方面实现对美国的追赶乃至弯道超车也并不是天方夜谭。

      不可否认，面对美国对人工智能领域的封锁和国内面临的经济困境，中国未来也存在极大的不确定性，但以中国今天对俄乌战争的左右能力和世界局势的影响来看，能够“担当起推动世界多极化和国际关系民主化的中流砥柱”重任的可能中国还真是唯一潜在的选项。

      习近平在多个外交场合频繁系统阐述其平等有序世界多极化的理论，实则是谋求“世界多极化”野心已经难以掩饰的表露，是其长期以来渴求的“百年未有之大变局”，野心之下，对国际社会和现行秩序潜存的危害就是大国不可避免的摩擦、脱钩断链甚至是擦枪走火，国内方面来说，就是对异议声音的压制，对人权的漠视，进一步高压统治的隐忧。

这并不是危言耸听，《香港国安法》与选举制度冲击下，香港社会民主自由严重倒退，今天中国政府对香港回归后50年制度不变的承诺正在蜕化，“一国两制”正在向着“一国一制”迈进，就是中国国力强大之后漠视国际制衡的后果体现。与此同时，国际力量钳制失效的后果还体现在中国政府对台湾国际空间的极限压制方面，频繁的军事恐吓和外交围堵，愈发肆无忌惮，原本心照不宣的惯例正在被密集打破，值得国际社会警惕。 野心已经摆在台面，危险信号已经释放，至于如何应对和遏制则要考验国际社会的智慧了。

编辑：冯仍 校对：冯仍 翻译：吕峰

Xi Jinping’s Pursuit of an “Orderly Multipolar World” Is a Dangerous Signal

By Zhang Binbin

“The trend toward a multipolar world is irreversible.”

Xi Jinping made this forceful declaration in a speech at a Shanghai Cooperation Organization Plus meeting in Bishkek on the afternoon of September 1. Although Xi has invoked the idea of a “multipolar world” before, his repeated promotion of it as the SCO summit and the G20 summit unfolded against one another suggests a deliberate effort.

A New York Times news analysis interpreted Xi’s message as a signal to a world increasingly unsettled by Donald Trump that China was ready to help shape the future. At its heart, the argument was for an “orderly multipolar world” to replace the current U.S.-led order.

For a Chinese Communist Party that relies heavily on its leader to set its direction, Xi’s view of the world sets the course for Chinese diplomacy. The party’s earlier vision of a “community with a shared future for humanity” was promoted as a way to lead the times and guide humanity forward. By comparison, the call to “advance world multipolarity and reform and improve global governance” sheds that gentler language. It amounts to a forceful declaration that China intends to play a leading role in shaping the future international order, regardless of how the rest of the world receives it.

In the Chinese Communist Party’s official phrasing, Xi’s approach responds to an era of accelerating change, geopolitical divisions and mounting pressure on the international order. Beijing presents “world multipolarity” as an answer to calls for peace, stability and development, offering what it describes as a “Chinese solution” and “Chinese wisdom” to a troubled world.

Xi’s pursuit of an “orderly multipolar world” is a dangerous signal. At a time when the United States is straining alliances and economic relationships that have underpinned its global leadership for decades, such a prominent initiative can be read as a challenge to Trump and to the international order established after World War II. At the very least, it comes close to declaring that China intends to stand alongside the United States in shaping the future order.

Whether Xi can realize his vision during his political career remains uncertain. Past Chinese leaders’ views of the world, however, have profoundly shaped both foreign policy and Chinese society: from Mao Zedong’s “Three Worlds” theory to Deng Xiaoping’s injunction to “hide our capabilities and bide our time,” and from Jiang Zemin’s embrace of economic globalization to Xi’s “community with a shared future for humanity.” Xi’s increasingly emphatic call for multipolarity suggests that China will seek a greater say in international affairs rather than accept a subordinate position. That effort to reshape the international order could bring it into direct conflict with U.S. interests. Countries may face growing pressure to choose sides. Even if war does not break out in the near term, a prolonged contest over the terms of peace is possible.

China’s current strength may not be sufficient to support Xi’s ambition for global dominance. Yet its economic scale and extensive supply chains give it considerable reach. As the United States engages in deeper trade disputes with democratic partners and weakens its defense commitments to allies, China has an opportunity to court Western allies of the United States and emerging-market partners alike. Under those conditions, narrowing the gap with the United States in national strength and global influence, or even overtaking it in some areas, is not beyond imagining.

China’s future is far from certain. It faces domestic economic difficulties and U.S. restrictions in the field of artificial intelligence. Even so, given Beijing’s influence on the Russia–Ukraine war and on wider international affairs, China may be the only plausible country capable of assuming what its leaders call the role of a “mainstay” in advancing world multipolarity and more democratic international relations.

Xi’s repeated, systematic explanations of his vision for an equal and orderly multipolar world at diplomatic events reveal an ambition that has become difficult to conceal. It reflects the “great changes unseen in a century” that he has long anticipated. For the international community and the existing order, the risks include friction between major powers, economic decoupling, broken supply chains and even an unintended military confrontation. Within China, the concern is that this ambition could bring greater suppression of dissent, disregard for human rights and tighter political control.

These concerns are not baseless. Hong Kong’s democratic freedoms have suffered serious setbacks under the national security law and changes to its electoral system. The Chinese government’s promise that Hong Kong’s system would remain unchanged for 50 years after the handover is being eroded, as “one country, two systems” moves closer to “one country, one system.” This is one example of what can happen when a more powerful China disregards international constraints. Another is Beijing’s increasingly intense pressure on Taiwan’s international space through military intimidation and diplomatic isolation. Longstanding tacit practices are being broken with growing frequency, a development the international community should watch closely.

Xi’s ambition is now in plain view, and the warning signal has been sent. How to respond and contain the risks will test the judgment of the international community.

Editor: Feng Reng · Proofreader: Feng Reng · Translator: Lyu Feng