作者：周敏 编辑：韩立华 责任编辑：钟然 校对：冯仍 翻译：戈冰

中国近年儿童、少年频繁莫名丢失或死亡的消息，在民间的安全焦虑中占据了核心位置。2024年焦作一名12岁男孩晚上出门扔垃圾后失踪，当时穿拖鞋且没带手机和钱。各地都有学生在上学或放学途中失去踪迹。云南和四川有熊猫血学生在校离奇死亡。部分校内死亡案件中，家属反映学校拒绝交出尸体；校方以维护秩序为由封锁校园并快速处理遗体，相关司法鉴定和尸检程序未被公开披露。还有大量的毕业生和年轻人因招聘、旅游等被骗至缅甸、柬埔寨、泰国后失踪。此类种种事件不断发生，绝大多数都无法登上新闻或媒体平台。

中国拥有全球最密集的视频监控系统（天网），官方曾多次展示其在几分钟内定位特定人员的能力。然而在这种无死角的监控下，频繁发生的青少年失踪案件（如胡鑫宇案）往往陷入调查僵局，最终以极具争议的“自杀”结论结案。更令人费解的是，旨在帮助家长寻亲的公益平台如“宝贝回家”等网站近年来越发受到行政干扰，甚至被限制或关闭。部分寻亲家庭反映，他们的寻人行动被有关部门视为“可能影响社会稳定”的风险因素。大量家长在线上聚集、线下互助，被官方视为社会不稳定因素。

这种政治定位极其灵敏、寻人极其迟钝的监控选择性失灵，让民众不得不产生最黑暗的联想：在网上打个字都被精准定位的环境下，一个大活人莫名蒸发，是真的无能，还是权力的默许？官方倾向于将失踪解释为离家出走或自杀，而民间寻亲者往往指向器官犯罪。

为何失踪或莫名死亡总是与器官移植联系在一起？

长期以来，中国器官移植市场最令国际社会困惑的特征是，超短的等待时间与爆发式增长的手术量。合法自愿捐献的登记人数与实际完成的手术量之间，存在着巨大的、难以用“自愿”来解释的缺口。

这种数据上的缺口，在民间舆论中转化为具体的恐惧：青少年莫名失踪与死亡。

2024年发生的湘雅二院实习医生罗帅宇坠楼案，为这种恐惧提供了惨烈的注脚。罗留下的录音证据，直接指向了医疗系统内部非法获取、买卖人体器官的利益链。官方在2025年6月的通报中全盘否认了买卖器官的质疑，但家属披露的细节极具冲击力：一名实习医生收到医院以劳务费名义转账的40万元，这在医疗界极不寻常；罗生前留下的录音涉及非法收受获取器官费用及微信转账记录。罗医生以生命的代价揭示了在中国顶级医疗机构中，器官的获取并非全部来自官方宣称的红十字会渠道，而是一条涉及地下中介、巨额现金流和权钱交易的秘密生产线。

异常的数据显示出无法对齐的供需鸿沟。这是一个极度复杂且缺乏公开透明数据的领域。近年官方宣称每年约1.5万例器官捐献（含大器官）。国际学术界和人权组织如ETAC和McCain Institute通过对中国数百家移植医院的床位周转率、手术室数量、医院财报、移植中心扩建速度及药品（环孢素等抗排异药）消耗量推测，实际手术量每年6万—10万例。

这里有一个关键矛盾点——等待时间。在实行成熟器官捐献体制的美英等国，肝脏、肾脏的平均等待时间通常3—5年。然而，中国多家移植中心（如湘雅、仁济、天津一中心等）曾公开宣称其等待时间仅需1-4周甚至“急诊移植”数小时内找到配型。在非活体器官捐献体系中，如此高效的配型概率在统计学上近乎神迹。除非后台存在一个庞大的、分型数据已经入库的活体供应库在随时等待订单。

收割链条上还有一个位于中国境外。国际刑警组织及联合国多名人权专家在公开报告中，多次指出，缅北及柬埔寨—缅甸边境地区长期存在针对外籍人员的大规模人口贩运、非法拘禁与酷刑行为，受害者中以中国公民居多。这些区域被多个国际机构列为高度封闭、执法真空与武装控制并存的灰色地带。

正是在这样一个已被确认的极端犯罪环境中，部分人权组织与从当地诈骗园区逃脱的幸存者进一步披露，在妙瓦底等地，存在可能涉及非法器官交易的地下活动传闻。幸存者证词称，一些失去“利用价值”的被拘禁者在被转卖或转移后下落不明。由于当地长期处于高度封闭状态，外界难以进入展开独立调查，上述指控迄今仍缺乏公开、透明的国际调查加以核实。

然而，正是这种信息黑箱的存在，使得围绕这些地区的种种指控无法被证实，也无法被证伪，进一步加剧了人们对跨境人口贩运、非法拘禁与更严重侵害行为之间潜在关联的恐惧。

现在有必要就“按需摘取”这个模式进行深度论证。在正常的捐献体系如美国UNOS，器官来源于脑死亡或心死亡后的捐献。这就注定了随机性，谁也不知道下一个捐献者何时出现。而器官一旦离体，冷缺血时间极为短暂。心脏仅4—6小时，肝脏12—15小时，肾脏24—48小时。整个流程是发现供体——维护生命体征——确认脑死亡——配型比对——摘取——运输——植入。如果一个病人能确定在短期内预定到一个匹配的器官，这意味着：不是病人在等器官，而是器官供体在等病人。也就意味着后台存在一个巨大的、已经完成了DNA和HLA（人类白细胞抗原）分型录入的数据库。那么这些供体处于什么状态呢？处于被剥夺自由且随时可以被调配的状态。他们可能身处监狱、看守所、强迫失踪状态或是被严密监控的群体。最后这个状态尤其恐怖。供体可能正常上学上班，但是数据一旦匹配，便会随时失踪。

如天津第一中心医院曾标榜的，急诊移植可在数小时内找到器官供体，其医学含义更加恐怖。正常脑死亡是不可预测的。能保证在数小时内提供器官，意味着供体可以被随时安排死亡。在病人进入手术室的同时，供体就在同一家医院或极近的距离被“处理”。

罗医生举报的非法获取器官费用，正是这个黑市运作的润滑剂。获取费是给寻找和维持这些活体资源的地下中介、监狱或看守所的非法报酬。劳务费是给参与摘取的医生和协调员的封口费。

这种超高效率的配型背后，是覆盖全社会的生物数据采集。《中小学生健康体检管理办法》规定，学生每年必须进行抽血体检，不然便无法入学、中考、高考。体检费用包含在学杂费中。在缺乏隐私保护和透明监管的环境下，这些涵盖血型、DNA信息的血液样本去向成谜。这是最令公众担心的一点。当孩子们的身体情况全部被数据化时，这套系统就具备了精准搜索的功能。如果需要某个特定配型的器官，只需要在数据库中检索，就能迅速匹配。这不再是医疗关怀，而是生存风险。

2026年1月初，河南新蔡一所名为“清华园”的学校发生一起在校学生非正常死亡事件。

据多位网民转述及家属在社交平台的说法，该学生在参加常规体检抽血后不久，于校内被发现身亡。家属在现场看到其身体存在异常痕迹，并对死亡原因提出强烈质疑，但校方随即以“维护秩序”为由封锁现场，相关情况未经过独立司法鉴定即被处理。目前，有关该事件的讨论帖文在网络上频繁遭到删除，真实死因至今未有公开、透明的说明。这种对真相的强力阻断，加剧了公众对普遍撒网、按需收割的深度焦虑。

当冰冷的算法在数据库里精准选中了那个鲜活的少年，当门口的鞋子再也等不到归家的人，我们剩下的只有最原始的战栗——谁能保证，那台没有车牌号的收割机，下一个不会停在你我的家门口？让我们一起哀悼这个连身体都不再属于自己的黑暗纪元。

01/04/2026 周敏

China’s Organ Transplant Craze: Where Have All the Missing Children Gone?

Abstract: This article explores the massive dark underbelly of China’s organ transplant industry, drawing from the facts of frequent unexplained disappearances or deaths of children and adolescents in recent years, alongside the government’s deliberate suppression of such news.

Author: Zhou Min Editor: Han Lihua

Managing Editor: Zhong Ran Proofreader: Feng Reng

Translator: Ge Bing

Reports of frequent unexplained disappearances or deaths among Chinese children and adolescents in recent years have become a central source of public safety anxiety. In 2024, a 12-year-old boy in Jiaozuo vanished after leaving home at night to take out the trash, wearing only slippers and carrying neither phone nor money. Students across the country have disappeared while commuting to or from school. In Yunnan and Sichuan, students with rare blood types died mysteriously on school grounds. In some on-campus death cases, families reported schools refusing to release bodies; campuses were sealed off under the pretext of maintaining order, with remains handled swiftly and related forensic examinations or autopsy procedures never publicly disclosed. Numerous graduates and young people have also vanished after being lured to Myanmar, Cambodia, or Thailand under false pretenses for job offers or travel. Such incidents persist, with the vast majority never reaching news or media platforms.

China operates the world’s most extensive video surveillance network (SkyNet), with authorities repeatedly demonstrating its ability to locate specific individuals within minutes. Yet under this seemingly all-seeing surveillance, frequent youth disappearances—such as the Hu Xinyu case—often stall in investigations, ultimately concluding with highly controversial “suicide” rulings. Even more perplexing is the growing administrative interference targeting public welfare platforms like “Baby Home,” which aim to assist families in locating missing relatives. These sites have faced restrictions or outright shutdowns in recent years. Some families searching for their loved ones report that authorities view their efforts as potential risks that “may impact social stability.” The online gatherings and offline mutual aid among numerous parents are perceived by officials as destabilizing elements.

This selective failure of surveillance—highly sensitive to political positioning yet remarkably sluggish in tracing missing persons—compels the public to entertain the darkest suspicions: In an environment where typing online can be precisely tracked, does the unexplained disappearance of a living person stem from genuine incompetence or tacit official acquiescence? Authorities tend to explain disappearances as runaways or suicides, while grassroots searchers often point to organ trafficking crimes.

Why do disappearances or unexplained deaths persistently link to organ transplants?

For years, the most perplexing feature of China’s organ transplant market to the international community has been the stark contrast between ultra-short waiting times and explosive growth in surgical volumes. A massive gap exists between the number of registered legal voluntary donors and the actual number of completed surgeries—a discrepancy impossible to explain solely by “voluntary” donations.

This statistical gap has translated into concrete fears within public discourse: the unexplained disappearances and deaths of young people.

The 2024 case of Luo Shuaiyu, an intern at Xiangya Hospital No. 2 who fell to his death, provided a tragic footnote to these fears. Audio evidence left by Luo directly pointed to an internal medical system chain of illegal organ procurement and trafficking. In an official statement released in June 2025, authorities categorically denied allegations of organ trafficking. However, details disclosed by Luo’s family were deeply unsettling: an intern received a 400,000 yuan transfer from the hospital under the guise of “labor fees”—an extremely unusual practice in the medical field. Luo’s recorded messages also referenced illegal payments for organ procurement and WeChat transfer records. Dr. Luo paid with his life to expose that within China’s top medical institutions, organ procurement does not solely rely on the Red Cross channels officially claimed, but instead operates through a clandestine production line involving underground brokers, massive cash flows, and transactions of power for money.

Abnormal data reveals an unbridgeable gap between supply and demand. This is an extremely complex field lacking publicly transparent data. Official figures claim approximately 15,000 organ donations (including major organs) annually. However, international academic circles and human rights organizations like ETAC and the McCain Institute estimate actual transplant volumes at 60,000–100,000 cases per year. This projection is based on analyzing hundreds of Chinese transplant hospitals’ bed turnover rates, operating room counts, financial reports, expansion speeds of transplant centers, and consumption of immunosuppressants like cyclosporine.

A key contradiction lies in waiting times. In mature organ donation systems like those in the US and UK, average wait times for liver and kidney transplants typically range from 3 to 5 years. However, multiple transplant centers in China (such as Xiangya, Renji, and Tianjin First Transplant Center) have publicly claimed waiting times as short as 1–4 weeks, or even “emergency transplants” with matches found within hours. In a non-living donor system, such high matching probabilities are statistically near impossible. This suggests the existence of a massive, pre-registered living donor database ready to fulfill orders at any moment.

Another link in the harvesting chain lies outside China. In public reports, Interpol and multiple UN human rights experts have repeatedly highlighted the longstanding existence of large-scale human trafficking, illegal detention, and torture targeting foreign nationals in northern Myanmar and the Cambodia-Myanmar border region, with Chinese citizens constituting the majority of victims. These regions have been classified by multiple international agencies as highly closed-off gray zones characterized by law enforcement vacuums and armed control.

It is precisely within this confirmed environment of extreme criminality that some human rights organizations and survivors who escaped from local fraud operations have further disclosed rumors of underground activities potentially involving illegal organ trafficking in areas like Myawaddy. Survivor testimonies indicate that some detainees deemed no longer “useful” disappear after being resold or transferred. Due to the prolonged, highly closed nature of these areas, external access for independent investigation is difficult, and these allegations remain unverified by open, transparent international investigations.

Yet it is precisely this information black box that renders allegations surrounding these regions impossible to confirm or disprove, further fueling fears of potential links between cross-border human trafficking, illegal detention, and more severe abuses.

It is now imperative to conduct an in-depth examination of the “on-demand harvesting” model. In normal donation systems like the US UNOS, organs originate from donors who have undergone brain death or cardiac death. This inherently introduces randomness, as no one can predict when the next donor will become available. Once removed from the body, organs have extremely limited cold ischemia time: hearts last only 4–6 hours, livers 12–15 hours, and kidneys 24–48 hours. The entire process involves: identifying a donor → maintaining vital signs → confirming brain death → matching tissue types → harvesting → transporting → transplanting. If a patient can secure a matched organ within a short timeframe, this implies: it is not the patient waiting for an organ, but the organ donor waiting for the patient. This necessitates the existence of a massive database where DNA and HLA (Human Leukocyte Antigen) typing information has already been entered and stored. What is the status of these donors? They are deprived of freedom and subject to immediate mobilization. They may be in prisons, detention centers, enforced disappearance situations, or under strict surveillance. The latter scenario is particularly alarming. Donors might appear to lead normal lives—going to school or work—but once their data matches a recipient, they can vanish at any moment.

As touted by Tianjin First Central Hospital, emergency transplants can secure organ donors within hours—a medical practice with even more terrifying implications. Normal brain death is unpredictable. Guaranteeing organ availability within hours implies donors can be scheduled for death at any moment. While the patient enters the operating room, the donor is “processed” within the same hospital or at a nearby location.

The illegal organ procurement fees exposed by Dr. Luo serve as the lubricant for this black market operation. Acquisition fees are illicit payments to underground brokers, prisons, or detention centers for locating and maintaining these living resources. Labor fees are hush money paid to doctors and coordinators involved in the harvesting.

Behind this ultra-efficient matching system lies a nationwide collection of biological data. The “Health Examination Management Measures for Primary and Secondary School Students” mandates annual blood tests for students, without which they cannot enroll in school or take entrance exams for middle or high school. The cost of these examinations is included in tuition fees. In an environment lacking privacy protections and transparent oversight, the destination of these blood samples—containing information such as blood type and DNA—remains a mystery.

This is the aspect that most concerns the public. When children’s physical conditions are fully digitized, this system gains precision search capabilities. If an organ with a specific blood type is needed, a database query can swiftly identify a match. This is no longer about medical care—it’s a matter of survival risk.

In early January 2026, an unexplained death occurred among students at a school named “Qinghua Garden” in Xincai County, Henan Province.

According to multiple netizens and family members’ accounts on social media, the student was found dead on campus shortly after undergoing routine blood tests during a physical examination. Family members observed unusual marks on the body and strongly questioned the cause of death. However, the school immediately sealed off the scene under the pretext of “maintaining order,” and the case was handled without independent forensic investigation. Currently, online discussions about the incident are frequently deleted, and the true cause of death remains unaddressed with any public transparency. This forceful suppression of truth intensifies public anxiety over the widespread practice of indiscriminate data collection and targeted exploitation.

When cold algorithms precisely select that vibrant youth from the database, when shoes left by the door forever await an absent return, all that remains is our most primal tremor—who can guarantee that the unmarked reaper won’t next halt at your doorstep, or mine? Let us mourn this dark age where even our bodies no longer belong to ourselves.

01/04/2026 Zhou Min