编辑：钟然 翻译：戈冰
谢国忠，1960年生，经济学博士，曾任摩根士丹利亚洲区首席经济学家。长期研究房地产、资产泡沫与宏观政策风险，因多次提前预警市场下行趋势而备受关注，也因此被称为“民间空军司令”。
十五年前，谢国忠在楼市一片飘红的时候，唱空楼市，他说：“这不是繁荣，这是透支。年轻人按揭买楼，是用自己的“未来”买“现在”，以后，他们得月月交房贷，拿什么消费？必然造成消费不足，拖垮整个经济。也不敢生育娃娃，因为钱都交房贷，拿什么养娃娃？”“一旦房地产泡沫破裂，当年掏大价钱购买的房子，变成垃圾，卖不出去，按揭如何兑现？”“政府糊涂，不应该超发钞票，拉高楼市。楼市饱和以后，你超发的钞票往哪里转移？中国经济要出大问题的。”如今房价大幅回落、成交腰斩，房企接连爆雷，曾为房企老大的恒大集团已轰然倒下；“停贷潮”与断供风波席卷而来。现实，正冷冷地回应他当年的警告。
谢国忠还说：“既然国有企业是全民所有企业，那么，每一个财政年度就要给全民分发利润。因为全体国民是股东。国有企业不给全国人民分发利润，把盈利干了什么？企业不能说我交给政府了，政府不是企业所有者，是人民雇佣的服务员，你把盈利给政府，等于把主人的钱给仆人，世界上哪有这个道理？政府若长期将国企利润直接纳入财政，而不向全民分配，本质上是对全民资产收益的占有。正确的做法是，国有企业把利润分发人民，人民用来消费，政府收税，用作公益。政府无权拿国有企业的盈利。政府直接拿去国有企业利润，是违法的，至少是越权。”他进一步批评土地财政模式，认为政府依靠土地出让金维持运转，本质上是将全民土地资源财政化。土地属于人民，而土地出让收入却由政府集中支配，并未直接回馈全民。中国政府依靠土地出让金维持运转，这是完全错误的，也是违法的。政府所花的钱，只有一个来源：“财政拨款”，也就是税收。政府靠出卖土地而得利，这种做法荒谬、荒诞、荒唐！
回望明朝末年，朝廷挥霍无度，财政枯竭。外敌入侵时，皇帝两手空空如也，无资金可用！怎么办？耍无赖，不断向社会转嫁成本。如果用略带文学性的笔触去概括明末的财政困境，大致会是这样：士兵为朝廷作战，不仅冒着生命危险，还需自筹武器、马匹和干粮。政府官吏无法按时领取薪俸，崇祯帝先将朝廷世代珍藏的宝鼎（青铜器）融化铸钱，仅能暂时缓解困境。仍不够，他便“号召”富人捐款，当时的做法被称为“拣肥杀猪”，不少富人或托辞贫困，或转移财产，规避摊派。无计可施之下，崇祯帝甚至对官吏说：“你们自己想办法解决薪水。”此举无疑鼓励了官员向百姓转嫁负担。民间流传称，思想家李贽任县令时，把县印挂在县衙，由办事人自行盖印，他自己骑驴讨饭去了。当公共资源被不断抽取，而社会却得不到相应回馈，秩序便会逐步瓦解。
对照现实，中国当下的某些迹象与明末何其相似：公共资源被高度集中并持续消耗，而许多普通百姓却未必真正意识到已处于危如累卵的境地。甚至仍在为权力唱赞歌，对发出风险警示的人加以嘲讽。
谢国忠长期唱空楼市、股市、国有企业和中国经济，他的观点触及中国经济制度和政策敏感线，被中共认为扰乱民心、影响政权稳定，因此在大陆主流媒体和社交平台上的公开发声长期受限。近期，他在海外媒体和社交平台重新活跃，继续直言中国经济问题。但无论谢国忠能否发声，历史的车轮终将碾过，多行不义的政权必自毙，经济和制度的风险已经埋下，暴雷时就是中共拉着14亿人一起毁灭的时候！
Evil brings its own ruin: Andy Xie Warns of Risks to China’s Economy and People’s Livelihoods
Editor: Zhong Ran Translator: Ge Bing
Abstract: Stephen Cheah, economist and former chief economist at Morgan Stanley, has long warned about China’s property bubble, stock market risks, and state-owned enterprise issues. His work has faced prolonged restrictions in mainland media and social platforms. His warnings align with reality, highlighting systemic economic and institutional risks, and cautioning that both citizens and the regime will bear the consequences.
Born in 1960, Andy Xie holds a Ph.D. in Economics and previously served as Chief Economist for Asia at Morgan Stanley. His long-term research focuses on real estate, asset bubbles, and macroeconomic policy risks. He gained prominence for repeatedly predicting market downturns in advance, earning him the nickname “Commander of the Private Bear Camp.”
Fifteen years ago, when the property market was booming, Xie warned against it, stating: “This isn’t prosperity; it’s living beyond one’s means. Young people buying homes with mortgages are trading their ‘future’ for ‘present.’ Later, they’ll have to pay monthly mortgage installments—what will they have left for consumption? This inevitably leads to insufficient spending, dragging down the entire economy. They also won’t dare to have children, because all their money goes to mortgage payments—how could they afford to raise a child?” Once the real estate bubble bursts, the homes bought at premium prices will become worthless trash, unsellable. How will people repay their mortgages?“ ”The government is misguided. It shouldn’t have overprinted money to inflate the property market. Once the market saturates, where will all that excess money flow? China’s economy is headed for major trouble.” “Now, with housing prices plummeting, transactions halved, and property developers defaulting one after another, Evergrande Group—once the industry leader—has collapsed. A wave of loan suspensions and mortgage defaults is sweeping through. Reality is coldly validating his warnings from years ago.
Andy Xie also stated: “Since state-owned enterprises belong to the entire people, profits should be distributed to all citizens every fiscal year. Because the entire nation is the shareholder. If state-owned enterprises don’t distribute profits to the people, what are they doing with the earnings? Companies can’t claim they’re handing profits over to the government. The government isn’t the owner of these enterprises; it’s a servant hired by the people. Giving profits to the government is like handing the master’s money to the servant—where in the world is that justified? If the government consistently incorporates SOE profits directly into the fiscal budget without distributing them to the public, it essentially constitutes the appropriation of the people’s asset returns. The correct approach is for state-owned enterprises to distribute profits to the people, who then consume them. The government collects taxes from this consumption to fund public welfare. The government has no right to seize state-owned enterprise profits. Direct appropriation of such profits is illegal, or at the very least, an abuse of authority.” He further criticized the land-finance model, arguing that governments relying on land transfer fees to sustain operations essentially monetizes the nation’s land resources. Land belongs to the people, yet the revenue from land transfers is centrally controlled by the government without direct benefit to the populace. The Chinese government’s reliance on land transfer fees to sustain operations is entirely erroneous and unlawful. Government expenditures should have only one source: “fiscal appropriations,” meaning taxes. For the government to profit from selling land is absurd, preposterous, and ridiculous!
Looking back at the late Ming Dynasty, the imperial court squandered resources recklessly, depleting the treasury. When foreign enemies invaded, the emperor found himself empty-handed, with no funds to spare! What could be done? He resorted to underhanded tactics, constantly shifting the burden onto society. If we were to summarize the fiscal crisis of the late Ming with a touch of literary flair, it might go something like this: Soldiers fought for the court, not only risking their lives but also having to procure their own weapons, horses, and provisions. Government officials couldn’t receive their salaries on time. Emperor Chongzhen first melted down the treasured bronze vessels passed down through generations to cast coins, which only provided temporary relief. Still insufficient, he then “called upon” the wealthy to donate. This practice was known as “picking fat to slaughter pigs.” Many wealthy individuals either claimed poverty or transferred assets to evade the levies. At a loss, Emperor Chongzhen even told officials, “Find your own solutions for salaries.” This move undoubtedly encouraged officials to shift burdens onto the people. Folk tales recount how the thinker Li Zhi, while serving as a county magistrate, hung the county seal in the government office for clerks to stamp documents themselves, then rode off on a donkey to beg for food. When public resources are relentlessly drained without corresponding societal returns, order gradually disintegrates.
Contrasting with reality, certain signs in contemporary China bear striking resemblance to the late Ming era: public resources are highly centralized and continuously depleted, yet many ordinary citizens remain largely unaware of their precarious situation. Some even continue to sing praises of power while mocking those sounding risk warnings.
Andy Xie has long been bearish on China’s real estate market, stock market, state-owned enterprises, and economy. His views touch on sensitive lines within China’s economic system and policies. The Chinese Communist Party considers him disruptive to public sentiment and a threat to regime stability, hence his public voice has long been restricted on mainland mainstream media and social platforms. Recently, he has become active again on overseas media and social platforms, continuing to speak candidly about China’s economic issues. But regardless of whether Andy Xie can speak out, the wheels of history will inevitably roll on. A regime that commits too many injustices will inevitably destroy itself. The risks in the economy and the system have already been sown. When the bombshells explode, it will be the moment the CCP drags 1.4 billion people down with it!
