编辑：周志刚   责任编辑：钟然   校对：冯仍   翻译：吕峰

最近这一阵子，国际新闻看下来，真有点“独裁者排队倒下”的感觉。

德黑兰枪声：不再恐惧的伊朗人

就在今年1月，伊朗的局势已经到了失控的边缘。这场从去年底爆发的抗议，起因还是老生常谈的经济崩溃——通胀率飙升，老百姓连基本的生活物资都买不起。但这一次，火苗迅速烧成了大火。

细节比以往任何一次都更惨烈。据报道，德黑兰的抗议已经蔓延到180多个城市。虽然伊朗当局故技重施，在1月8日实施了全国断网，并出动安全部队开枪镇压，但是这次年轻人没退缩。最震撼的消息是，有视频流出显示德黑兰郊区的停尸房里堆满了遇难者的遗体，民间传闻遇难人数甚至超过了万人。

这次抗议有一个细节很关键：口号变了。以前大家可能还只是喊喊“要面包”，现在满大街喊的是“打倒哈梅内伊”。更重要的是，像阿卜达南这样的城市，安全部队竟然因为无法维持局面而选择了撤离。当暴力工具开始失效，当恐惧不再能吓住老百姓，这个神权独裁政权的倒计时就已经开始了。

纽约囚服：马杜罗的神话破灭

如果说伊朗还在“挣扎”，那委内瑞拉的马杜罗则是彻底“凉了”。2026年1月3日，美军发动了名为“绝对决心”的突袭行动，在加拉加斯直接抓捕了马杜罗及其夫人，并迅速把他们押解到了纽约。

这个细节非常具有讽刺意味：一个曾经在电视上指点江山、大谈反美的独裁者，几天后竟然身穿囚服、戴着手铐出现在纽约的法庭上。马杜罗一直觉得只要抓牢军方、搞定选举，就能靠石油财富一直统治下去。但他忽略了，当国家通胀到钞票不如废纸、数百万人流亡海外时，他的统治根基早已腐烂。

马杜罗的倒台给全世界的独裁者提了个醒：在这个时代，没有谁是绝对安全的。即便你自诩有强大的武装，但在失去民心和国际社会合法性之后，崩溃往往就在一夜之间。

全球趋势重点：独裁者的生存空间在缩小

这两个事件连在一起看，其实释放了一个信号：独裁统治的“红利期”结束了。

过去独裁政权靠三招：封锁消息、经济收买、武力镇压。但现在，虽然有高科技监控，但去中心化的信息传播依然挡不住；全球经济进入下行周期，独裁者没钱收买人心了；而当镇压的代价大到连士兵都不愿开枪时，独裁政权的死穴就被点中了。

展望国内：中国高压效应已经形成

回过头来看看中国。虽然现在国内看起来风平浪静，各方面的控制手段也比伊朗、委内瑞拉高明得多，但逻辑其实是一样的。

过去大家愿意听话，是因为日子还能过，有一种“拿自由换面包”的默契。但现在经济慢下来了，年轻人找工作难，这种默契就开始裂了。再加上那种无孔不入的监控，短期看确实有效，但长期看，它就像个高压锅，把所有的不满都闷在里面，压力只会越来越大。

看未来的中国民主，我觉得没必要认为一夜之间天翻地覆，它更多的是一种“憋不住”的过程。当大家发现原本那套法子不灵了，当每个人开始意识到自己的尊严和权利不能永远被代表时，改变就会发生了。

历史这东西，一旦开了倒车，最后总会撞到墙。那些看起来铁板一块的墙，其实裂缝早就在里面长出来了。总结来看： 中国的民主化，可能不会是委内瑞拉那种戏剧性的“外力突袭”，而更像是一种“冰川崩裂”的过程——起初是看不见的裂纹，接着是咔咔作响的断裂，最后是不可阻挡的崩塌。

Lu Chao: The Coming Twilight of Authoritarianism

Editor: Zhou Zhigang   Responsible Editor: Zhong Ran   Proofreader: Feng Reng   Translator: Lyu Feng

Abstract: Recent intensifying protests in Iran and the arrest of Venezuela’s president indicate that authoritarian regimes may be approaching the end of their rule.

In recent weeks, following international news has given a distinct sense that “dictators are falling one after another.”

Gunfire in Tehran: An Iran No Longer Afraid

As early as January this year, the situation in Iran had already reached the brink of losing control. The protests, which erupted at the end of last year, were once again triggered by a familiar cause: economic collapse—soaring inflation and the inability of ordinary people to afford even basic necessities. This time, however, the spark quickly turned into a raging fire.

The details are more brutal than in any previous wave of unrest. Reports indicate that protests in Tehran have spread to more than 180 cities nationwide. Although Iranian authorities resorted to their usual tactics—imposing a nationwide internet shutdown on January 8 and deploying security forces to suppress the demonstrations with live ammunition—this time, young people did not retreat. The most shocking reports include videos allegedly showing morgues on the outskirts of Tehran filled with the bodies of victims, with unconfirmed accounts from civil society claiming that the death toll may have exceeded ten thousand.

One detail of this round of protests is particularly significant: the slogans have changed. In the past, crowds might have merely demanded “bread,” but now the streets are echoing with chants of “Down with Khamenei.” Even more telling is that in cities such as Abadan, security forces reportedly withdrew after being unable to maintain control. When the instruments of violence begin to fail, and when fear can no longer intimidate the population, the countdown to the collapse of a theocratic authoritarian regime has already begun.

The New York Prison Uniform: The Shattering of the Maduro Myth

If Iran can still be said to be “struggling,” then Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro is already finished. On January 3, 2026, the U.S. military launched a raid codenamed Operation Absolute Resolve, capturing Maduro and his wife directly in Caracas and swiftly transferring them to New York.

The symbolism of this moment is deeply ironic. A dictator who once lectured the world on television, railing against the United States and boasting of his power, appeared only days later in a New York courtroom wearing a prison uniform and shackled in handcuffs. Maduro long believed that as long as he maintained a firm grip on the military and managed electoral procedures, Venezuela’s oil wealth would allow him to rule indefinitely. What he failed to recognize was that when inflation rendered banknotes worth less than waste paper and millions of citizens fled the country, the foundations of his rule had already rotted beyond repair.

Maduro’s downfall delivers a stark warning to authoritarian rulers worldwide: in this era, no one is absolutely secure. Even those who pride themselves on commanding formidable armed forces may find that once popular support and international legitimacy are lost, collapse can come almost overnight.

Global Trend in Focus: The Shrinking Survival Space of Dictatorships

Viewed together, these two events send a clear signal: the so-called “dividend period” of authoritarian rule has come to an end.

In the past, authoritarian regimes relied on three main tools: information control, economic co-optation, and violent repression. Today, however, each of these pillars is eroding. Even with advanced surveillance technologies, decentralized information flows can no longer be fully contained. As the global economy enters a downturn, dictators increasingly lack the financial resources to buy loyalty. And when the cost of repression becomes so high that even soldiers hesitate to pull the trigger, the regime’s fatal vulnerability is exposed.

Looking Inward: China’s High-Pressure Effect Has Taken Shape

Turning back to China, the surface may still appear calm. Its systems of control are, in many respects, more sophisticated than those of Iran or Venezuela. Yet the underlying logic is the same.

In the past, people were willing to comply because life was still manageable—there existed an implicit bargain of “trading freedom for bread.” Now, as economic growth slows and young people struggle to find jobs, that tacit agreement is beginning to crack. At the same time, pervasive surveillance may seem effective in the short term, but in the long run it functions like a pressure cooker, trapping all discontent inside. The pressure can only continue to build.

When considering China’s future democratization, there is no need to imagine a sudden overnight upheaval. It is more likely to be a gradual process of “no longer being able to hold it in.” When people realize that the old methods no longer work, and when individuals begin to understand that their dignity and rights cannot be indefinitely substituted or represented by others, change will occur.

History has a way of asserting itself. Once it is forced into reverse, it eventually crashes into a wall. Those walls that appear solid and impenetrable often already contain growing cracks within. In summary, China’s path toward democratization is unlikely to resemble Venezuela’s dramatic, externally driven “sudden strike.” Instead, it may unfold more like a glacial collapse: invisible fissures at first, followed by audible cracking, and finally an unstoppable breakdown.