—— 从2024年诺贝尔经济学奖反思中国的未来
文 / 陆乾坤 《在野党》编辑部 责任编辑：鲁慧文
2024年诺贝尔经济学奖授予哈佛大学教授克劳迪娅·戈尔丁（Claudia Goldin），以表彰她通过历史数据系统性地揭示了制度、文化与家庭结构如何深刻影响女性在劳动力市场中的机会与薪酬差距。这项研究不仅拓展了我们对性别平等的理解，更深刻地指出：制度在无形之中，决定着人的命运。
这并非一项孤立的学术成果，而是在自由制度土壤上才能绽放的文明之花。在一个保障思想自由与学术自主的社会中，研究者得以追寻真实，公民得以表达意见，政府得以接受监督。“言论自由、信仰自由、免于匮乏的自由、免于恐惧的自由”——这些普世价值的实现程度，才是衡量制度优劣的真正标尺。
然而，今日中国层出不穷的社会悲剧，却从反面印证了制度失效的现实。
从“被自杀”的罗帅宇，到郑州村镇银行储户维权受阻；从“铁链女”事件真相被封锁，到异地公安跨省抓人、企业家被构陷的“远洋捕捞”式执法；从维权人士被非法截访，到外资大量撤退、青年就业失衡——这一切，并非偶发，而是中共体制内在逻辑的必然结果。
在一个权力不受监督、新闻不许质疑、司法缺乏独立、人民无法表达的体制中，不公正不是偶尔的意外，而是制度本身的日常机制。
戈尔丁的研究同时提醒我们：经济增长无法脱离制度设计而持续。当中国的宏观经济指标不断被美化，而微观现实却日益沉重；当改革承诺沦为口号，社会信任逐渐崩解；当个体因言获罪、因信仰入狱、因维权而消失……这不是现代国家的模样，更不是发展中国家应有的代价。
制度的深层代价，已在吞噬中国的未来：
外资出走，产业链重构，全球信任快速流失；
青年失业率持续高企，社会代际焦虑蔓延；
生育率断崖式下滑，人口结构陷入危机；
维稳成本激增，执政逻辑陷入恶性循环。
在这样的历史节点，中国民主党再度发声：
我们认为，中国不能靠更大的控制去维持虚假的秩序，而必须以更高的自由来唤醒真正的发展动力。我们主张：
保障言论自由，让人民说话，不再恐惧；
捍卫信仰自由，让思想多元，不再迫害；
重建法治体系，使人人在法律面前平等；
推动宪政民主，建立责任政府，制衡权力；
维护新闻独立，恢复真相的公共空间；
鼓励多党竞争，让人民拥有选择与参与权。
我们拒绝将发展仅定义为高楼林立和数据繁荣，而坚持认为：一个社会是否成功，关键在于它是否尊重个体的尊严、自由与选择。
中国的现代化不能止步于高铁和天眼，而应根植于制度文明与公民权利的深层基础之上。民主的价值，不仅是治理工具，更是一种生活方式。
我们也郑重声明：中国民主党不仅是历史记忆的守望者，更愿成为制度建设的参与者。我们不是为了推翻旧秩序而斗争，而是为了建设新中国的价值共识与政治未来。我们愿携手所有关心中国命运的公民，共同规划一个开放、自由、可持续的新方向。
“苟日新，日日新，又日新。”一个文明社会的进步，靠的不是口号，而是制度的日复一日更新。我们坚信：唯有制度归正，社会才能归心；唯有自由照耀，民族才能前行。
让我们不再沉默于恐惧，不再屈服于谎言。愿每一份声音都被倾听，每一份尊严都被尊重，每一个中国人都能在自由之光中昂首走向明天。
The Cost of Institutions and the Direction of Development
— Reflections on China’s Future from the 2024 Nobel Prize in Economics
By Lu Qiankun · The Opposition Party Editorial Board
Editor: Lu Huiwen Translator: Lu Huiwen
In 2024, the Nobel Prize in Economics was awarded to Harvard professor Claudia Goldin in recognition of her groundbreaking work using historical data to systematically reveal how institutions, culture, and family structures have profoundly shaped women’s opportunities and wage gaps in the labor market. Her research not only deepens our understanding of gender equality but also powerfully illustrates a larger truth: institutions silently determine human destiny.
This is not an isolated academic achievement, but a blossom of civilization made possible only in the soil of free institutions. In societies where freedom of thought and academic independence are protected, researchers can pursue truth, citizens can express dissent, and governments can be held accountable.
“Freedom of speech, freedom of belief, freedom from want, and freedom from fear”—these universal values are the true yardsticks for judging institutional quality.
Yet in today’s China, a torrent of social tragedies provides reverse proof of institutional failure.
From the mysterious death of whistleblower Dr. Lou Shuaiyu, to the silenced bank protests in Zhengzhou; from the censorship of the chained woman case, to trans-provincial police crackdowns and the weaponization of law against private entrepreneurs; from the illegal detention of rights defenders, to the exodus of foreign capital and youth unemployment—
None of these are isolated incidents.
They are the inevitable outcomes of the internal logic of the Chinese Communist system.
In a regime where power is unchecked, press is censored, courts are not independent, and people are silenced—
injustice is not an exception; it is the system.
Goldin’s research also reminds us: economic growth is unsustainable without sound institutional design.
When China’s macroeconomic numbers are polished, but everyday life grows increasingly grim;
When promises of reform turn into hollow slogans and social trust disintegrates;
When people are punished for speaking, imprisoned for their faith, or disappeared for defending their rights—
This is not what a modern nation should look like.
Nor is it the cost any developing country should have to bear.
China is already paying the deeper price of broken institutions:
• Foreign capital fleeing, global supply chains restructured, international trust collapsing;
• Youth unemployment soaring, generational anxiety spreading;
• Fertility rates plummeting, demographic crisis unfolding;
• Escalating “stability maintenance” costs, governance trapped in a vicious cycle.
At this critical historical juncture, the China Democracy Party once again raises its voice:
We believe China cannot rely on increasing control to maintain a false sense of order.
We must instead ignite real development through greater freedom.
We advocate:
• Protecting freedom of speech, so people may speak without fear;
• Defending freedom of belief, so ideas may flourish without persecution;
• Rebuilding a rule-of-law system, so all are equal before the law;
• Promoting constitutional democracy, so power is checked and government held accountable;
• Safeguarding press independence, to reclaim a public space for truth;
• Encouraging multi-party competition, so citizens may choose and participate in governance.
We reject the notion that “development” is measured solely in skyscrapers or inflated statistics.
We insist: a society’s success lies in its respect for individual dignity, freedom, and choice.
China’s modernization must not stop at high-speed rail and surveillance tech.
It must be grounded in institutional integrity and civic rights.
Democracy is not just a method of governance—it is a way of life.
We also affirm: the China Democracy Party is not merely a guardian of historical memory,
but a committed participant in the work of institutional construction.
We do not fight simply to overthrow the old order,
but to build a new political consensus for China’s future.
We stand ready to work with all citizens who care about China’s destiny—
to chart a path toward openness, freedom, and sustainability.
“If each day is made new, then let each day be newly renewed.”
The progress of a civilized society does not rely on slogans,
but on the steady renewal of its institutions.
We firmly believe:
Only when institutions are set right will hearts follow.
Only under the light of freedom can a nation truly move forward.
Let us no longer remain silent in fear, nor bow to lies.
Let every voice be heard.
Let every dignity be honored.
Let every Chinese citizen walk tall into the light of freedom.
