作者：张 宇
编辑：李之洋 责任编辑：胡丽莉 校对：林小龙 翻译：彭小梅
二十一世纪的东亚，正在经历一场关于自由与专制的较量。
二十多年前，香港曾是这场较量中最耀眼的象征。她以开放、法治、新闻自由和公民社会闻名于世，被誉为“东方之珠”。然而，短短数十年间，这颗明珠的光芒被政治的阴影所笼罩。原来被承诺“五十年不变”，在现实面前不过是纸上幻象。街头的抗议被镇压、媒体的声音被静音、选举的公正被剥夺，香港一步步陷入被控制于沉默的深渊。
在地理上，台湾与香港相隔不远；在命运上，却似乎正在被放在同一张棋盘。中国大陆不断以“和平统一”的口号试图重演同样的剧本，以经济诱因与政治压力交织的方式，想让台湾接受一个“被设计好的未来”。然而，香港的现实已经证明，所谓的“一国两制”只是通往一制的过渡，自治的承诺终将沦为空谈。
当香港的街头不再能高喊“自由”，台湾人必须思考：我们的未来要走向何方？
经过一个多世纪的殖民统治，英国在1997年将香港归还中国，在《中英联合声明》中，北京郑重承诺：香港人“高度自治”，生活方式“五十年不变”。那时，无数香港人相信，自己既能保有自由的空气，又能依靠中国大陆的经济发展实现繁荣。世界也普遍认为，“一国两制”或许是专制与自由之间的一种新型妥协。
然而，短短二十多年，习近平上台之后，这份承诺被撕得粉碎。
2014年6月，中国国务院发布白皮书，指在“一国两制”中，“两制”仅能“从属”于一国，特首人选必须“爱国爱港”，这是港人明确感受到中共将以“全面管制” 取代“港人自治” 态势的开端。
同年8月底，全国人大常委会通过香港行政长官普选和立法会产生办法的8.31决定，其中排除三轨制中的公民提名和政党提名，被外界批评是 “假普选”。 8.31框架决议随后触发为期79天争取“真普选”的“占领中环运动”。
12月15日，警方清场，“占中行动”结束，北京和香港特区政府没有在“真普选”的问题上让步。“占中”无果对香港青年一代是一大重击，显现了中共日渐强势的干预，并证明香港的言论自由、集会自由、独立的司法体系，以及萌芽中的民主正在流逝。再加之物价飞涨、薪资低、贫富差距大是现在香港大学生一毕业直接面对的困境。
从2014年到2019年，香港民众一次次走上街头，用和平与勇气表达对自由与法治的渴望。可面对的，却是警棍、催泪弹、监禁与噤声。中共将“国家安全”“维护稳定”凌驾于一切之上，以《国安法》的名义彻底摧毁了香港的自治基础。
那些曾经象征自由的元素——新闻、学术、选举、司法——被中共系统性地改造。
独立媒体被迫关停，《苹果日报》与《立场新闻》相继倒下；大学校园里的言论空间被压缩，异议学者被迫离开；民主派议员被取消资格，立法会沦为“橡皮图章”。甚至连普通市民的社交媒体发言，也可能被视为“煽动颠覆”。
香港的年轻一代，曾经自豪地称自己为“香港人”，如今却不得不低声说话，甚至远走他乡。自由的丧失，不是突然的爆炸，而是缓慢的窒息。当一个社会连表达不满的权利都被剥夺时，它的灵魂也随之凋零。
今天的香港，依旧有闪烁的霓虹灯、有繁忙的金融中心，但那已不再是自由的香港。那是一个被中共恐怖统治的城市，一个曾经相信“制度保障”的地方，如今成为了中共专制实验的样本。香港失去的，不只是政治自由，更是一种作为人的尊严和信念。
在东亚地区，台湾是少数拥有真正自由选举、独立媒体与公民社会的地区之一。每一张选票都能决定权利的方向，每一次街头的公民集会都能发出民意的声音。从“太阳花运动”到近年的多元社会议题，台湾展现出一个开放社会应有的自信与多样。这样的制度与文化，使台湾不仅仅是一座岛屿，更成为华语世界中自由与民主的象征。
但自由的存在从未意味着安全。来自中国大陆的威胁，正以前所未有的方式笼罩台湾。从经济渗透，舆论操作，到军事恫吓与外交孤立，中共以各种手段削弱台湾的国际空间，试图让台湾在心理上与经济上逐渐依赖，逐步屈服。
更复杂的是，台湾内部对未来的道路并非一致。有的人主张“维持现状”，相信模糊的和平能换来安定；有的人呼吁“正名独立”，认为只有明确立场才能捍卫自由。也有人仍抱有幻想，认为经济交流能换来政治善意。然而，香港的现实清楚地告诉台湾：与专制政权谈判“信任”，终将换来被动的吞噬。
台湾正站在十字路口：一边是维持脆弱的现状，寄希望于对岸的克制；另一边是承担独立的风险，却守住尊严与自主。香港的教训已经摆在眼前——当一个社会失去选择的权利，就意味着失去了自由。台湾的选择，决定的不仅是自己的未来，也关乎整个华语世界对“自由是否可能存在”的回答。
当香港的街头被沉默笼罩，许多人仍记得那句口号——光复香港，时代革命。它并不只是政治口号，而是一种对自由的渴望，对尊严的坚持。
香港已经被铁幕吞噬，街头的怒吼被消音，纸上的承诺化为灰烬。那座曾经象征自由的城市，如今只剩下被审查的报纸、被恐惧笼罩的眼神。香港不是失败的城市，而是被背叛的城市——它用鲜血告诉世界：与独裁交易的人，终将被独裁吞噬。
From Hong Kong’s Fate to Taiwan’s Future
Author: Zhang Yu
Edited: Li Zhiyang Managing Editor: Hu Lili Proofread: Lin Xiaolong Translated:Xiaomei Peng
Abstract:Once the “Pearl of the Orient” and a symbol of freedom and the rule of law, Hong Kong has fallen under the weight of authoritarian control, becoming a cautionary tale of lost liberty. Taiwan must take heed: only by upholding democracy and freedom can it avoid repeating Hong Kong’s tragedy and safeguard its dignity and future.
In the 21st century, East Asia is witnessing a profound struggle between freedom and tyranny.Two decades ago, Hong Kong stood as the brightest beacon in this contest—renowned for its openness, rule of law, press freedom, and vibrant civil society. Yet within just a few decades, the glow of that pearl has been dimmed by political darkness. What was once promised as “fifty years without change” proved to be nothing more than an illusion. Protests were crushed, the press silenced, and elections stripped of fairness. Step by step, Hong Kong was pushed into an abyss of fear and silence.
Geographically, Hong Kong and Taiwan lie close. Politically, however, both are now placed on the same chessboard. Beijing seeks to replay the Hong Kong script with Taiwan—promoting “peaceful reunification” through a mix of economic seduction and political coercion, trying to lure Taiwan into accepting a “pre-designed future. “But Hong Kong has already shown that the formula of “One Country, Two Systems” is merely a transition toward One Country, One System. The promise of autonomy was always destined to collapse.
When the streets of Hong Kong can no longer echo with the cry of “freedom,” it is time for the people of Taiwan to ask: Where will our future lead?
After more than a century of British rule, Hong Kong was handed over to China in 1997. In the Sino-British Joint Declaration, Beijing solemnly pledged that Hong Kong would enjoy a “high degree of autonomy” and that its way of life would remain unchanged for fifty years.
At the time, many Hong Kongers believed they could preserve their freedoms while benefiting from China’s economic rise. The world, too, saw “One Country, Two Systems” as a novel compromise between authoritarianism and liberty.
Yet within two decades—especially after Xi Jinping’s rise to power—those promises were torn apart.
In June 2014, China’s State Council issued a white paper declaring that under “One Country, Two Systems,” Hong Kong’s autonomy must be “subordinate” to the central government, and that its Chief Executive must be “patriotic.” It was the first unmistakable signal that Beijing intended total control.
That August, the National People’s Congress imposed the infamous “8.31 Decision,” excluding public and party nominations for the Chief Executive election—a move widely condemned as a “fake democracy”. This decision ignited the 79-day Umbrella Movement, as Hong Kongers peacefully occupied streets demanding genuine universal suffrage.
On December 15, police cleared the protest camps; Beijing and the Hong Kong government refused to compromise. The failure of the movement was a heavy blow to Hong Kong’s youth, revealing Beijing’s growing interference and the erosion of free speech, assembly, and judicial independence. For young graduates facing skyrocketing prices, stagnant wages, and widening inequality, despair replaced hope.
From 2014 to 2019, Hong Kong citizens repeatedly took to the streets, demanding liberty and the rule of law—but faced only batons, tear gas, imprisonment, and censorship. Under the pretext of “national security,” the CCP crushed the city’s autonomy.
Independent media were shut down—Apple Daily and Stand News silenced.Universities were purged of dissenting scholars. Ro-democracy lawmakers were disqualified. Even ordinary social media posts could be prosecuted as “inciting subversion.”
Hong Kong’s younger generation, once proud to call themselves “Hong Kongers,” now speak in whispers or flee abroad. Freedom’s death was not an explosion—it was a slow suffocation. When a society loses even the right to complain, its soul begins to die.
Today, neon lights still flicker, and the financial towers still stand, but this is not the same Hong Kong. It is now a city under fear and surveillance—a laboratory of authoritarian control. What it has lost is not only political freedom, but also human dignity and moral conviction.
In East Asia, Taiwan remains one of the few places with genuine democratic elections, independent media, and a vibrant civil society. Every vote shapes the direction of power, and every protest reflects the voice of the people. From the Sunflower Movement to the rise of diverse civic debates, Taiwan embodies openness and pluralism—a living symbol of freedom in the Chinese-speaking world.
Yet freedom is never synonymous with safety. China’s growing pressure now looms larger than ever—through economic infiltration, disinformation campaigns, military intimidation, and diplomatic isolation. The CCP aims to weaken Taiwan’s confidence and force it into dependency and submission.
Within Taiwan, opinions differ on the path forward. Some advocate maintaining the “status quo,” hoping that ambiguity will preserve peace. Others call for “official independence,” arguing that only clarity can defend sovereignty. Still others cling to the illusion that economic exchange will yield political goodwill.
But Hong Kong’s experience has already shattered that illusion: those who bargain with dictatorship end up consumed by it.
Taiwan now stands at a critical juncture. One path means preserving a fragile status quo and praying for restraint from across the strait; the other means taking the risk of asserting independence but preserving dignity and autonomy. Hong Kong’s tragedy makes the stakes clear: when a people lose the right to choose, they lose their freedom. Taiwan’s choice will determine not only its own future, but also whether freedom can truly survive in the Chinese-speaking world.
When Hong Kong’s streets fell silent, the slogan still echoed: “Liberate Hong Kong, Revolution of Our Times. “It was more than a political chant—it was a cry for dignity, a declaration of humanity. Hong Kong has been devoured by tyranny. Its shouts of defiance have been silenced, its promises turned to ash.But Hong Kong is not a failed city—it is a betrayed city. Through its suffering, it has taught the world a bitter truth: Those who compromise with dictatorship will, in the end, be devoured by it.
