作者：华言
编辑：邢文娟 责任编辑：胡丽莉 校对：程筱筱 翻译：彭小梅

极权统治需要一个高度原子化的社会，在这种社会中，个体像“原子”一样彼此孤立，缺乏家庭、社区和宗教联结，无法形成凝聚力或组织化的力量。宗教作为一种精神纽带，能够把独立的个体连接起来，凝聚出一股强大的集体意志，可以向极权统治说不，因而被极权视为潜在威协。宗教提供了一种独立于体制之外的精神秩序和价值体系——这看似独立，实则互为秩序，共同构成了极权对宗教自由的根本恐惧。

正因为宗教具有这种凝聚人心、连接个体的力量，它才成为极权统治最忌惮的对象。要削弱宗教的影响，极权往往会反向塑造一种彻底去联结、去信仰的社会形态——这正是“原子化社会”。

那么什么是“原子化”社会？简单说，就是把每一个个体从一切横向的、自主的、基于信任的共同体中剥离出来，使之成为孤立、无援、只能仰赖国家权力的“原子”。在这样的社会里，没有家庭的忠诚、没有邻里的互助、没有教会的团契、没有社团的协作——只有个人与国家的直接对峙，而个人永远是弱者。

宗教天然就是原子化的死敌。教堂、清真寺、寺庙、会堂，不是冰冷的行政单位，而是活生生的共同体。信徒在这里彼此称呼弟兄姊妹，分享喜悦、分担苦难，建立起超越血缘、地缘、阶层的纽带。这种纽带一旦成型，国家就无法再对个体实施“一对一”的全面控制。

为什么极权如此恐惧这些共同体？因为原子化的社会才是极权最肥沃的土壤。只有当个体被剥夺了所有中间归属，他才会把国家当作唯一的“大家庭”、把领袖当作唯一的“父亲”。极权要的不是公民，是没有尊严的臣民，每个人都是可任意揉捏的“螺丝钉”。宗教自由所孕育的共同体，恰好是这种臣民化工程的最大障碍。

为了破除宗教所带来的障碍，极权统治需要一种统治技术，极权主义就是一种理想的治理技术，它更是一种世俗宗教。它有自己的原罪（阶级敌人、种族劣等）、救赎（革命、种族净化）、末世论（共产主义乌托邦、千年帝国）、圣礼（批斗会、纽伦堡大会）、殉道者。它需要信徒的狂热、献祭，甚至自杀式忠诚。

极权主义许诺的“地上之城”永远无法兑现：斯大林的“新苏联人”最终只是饥荒与古拉格；希特勒的“千年帝国”十二年就崩塌；中共极权政权许诺的“共同富裕”与“民族复兴”，仍在监控摄像头与铁丝网的阴影下挣扎。宗教提供的是一种“垂直的希望”：它不许诺消灭苦难，而是赋予苦难以意义；它不许诺地上天堂，而是指向天上之城。这种希望的韧性，是任何极权乌托邦都无法复制的。

极权最害怕的，是宗教在“意义生产”上的垄断被打破。极权需要你相信“历史终结于我们的主义”，但宗教告诉你：“历史在上帝手中。”极权需要你为领袖的画像下跪，但宗教说：“除了上帝，任何偶像都是假的。”这种意识形态的正面交锋，极权从未赢过。

更致命的是，宗教的普世性天然反极权。极权靠“敌我划分”存活：敌人是阶级敌人、种族敌人、文明敌人。基督教说“爱你的仇敌”，佛教讲“无缘大慈，同体大悲”。这些教义直接瓦解了极权赖以维系的社会张力。1989年东欧剧变，莱比锡的尼古拉教堂每周一晚上的和平祈祷，吸引了从朋克到老党员的各色人等——这就是普世宗教对极权“敌人政治”的釜底抽薪。

结语

极权之所以害怕宗教自由，不是因为宗教本身威胁到公共安全，而是因为宗教自由照见了极权的虚伪与脆弱，它揭示了极权对个体原子化的渴望，也动摇了其在精神领域的垄断地位，在极权体系下，宗教可以“被容忍”，但必须被阉割，被控制，成为宣传“信仰自由”的工具，并非真正承认人的信仰权利与内心自由。

捍卫宗教自由，不是为了维护某种教义，而是为了每一个人都能免于被强制统一；不是因为神学高于世俗，而是因为信仰提供了抵御极权的最后庇护所；不是为了宗教本身，而是为了反抗被割断连接的人，能重新找到共同体，获得尊重

Why Totalitarian Regimes Fear Religious Freedom

Author: Hua Yan

Editor: Xing Wenjuan Executive Editor: Hu Lili Proofreader: Cheng Xiaoxiao Translated: Xiaomei Peng

Abstract:Totalitarian regimes rely on the “atomization” of society to weaken connections among individuals. Religion, with its spiritual power and organizational coherence, threatens this model and is therefore tightly controlled. Religious freedom is feared because it sparks individual conviction and the courage to resist power—shaking the very foundations of totalitarian rule.

A totalitarian regime requires a highly atomized society—one in which individuals exist like isolated “atoms,” cut off from family, community, and religion, unable to form cohesion or organized power. Religion, as a spiritual bond, connects independent individuals and forges a powerful collective will capable of saying “no” to totalitarian power. Thus, it is treated as an inherent threat. Religion offers a moral and spiritual order independent of the political system—it appears separate yet fundamentally challenges the totalitarian order. This is the core reason totalitarian regimes fear religious freedom.

Precisely because religion has the power to gather hearts and link individuals, it becomes the most dreaded obstacle to totalitarian rule. To undermine religion’s influence, totalitarian systems seek to construct the opposite kind of society: one stripped of connection and stripped of faith—an atomized society.

So what exactly is an “atomized” society? Simply put, it removes every person from all horizontal, trust-based, autonomous communities, turning them into isolated, helpless “atoms” who can only rely on state power. In such a society, there is no family loyalty, no neighborhood mutual aid, no fellowship in churches or temples, no civil associations—only the isolated individual facing the state. And the individual is always weak.

Religion is the natural enemy of atomization. Churches, mosques, temples, synagogues—these are not cold administrative units but living communities. Believers call each other brothers and sisters, share joy and bear suffering, and form bonds that surpass blood, geography, and class. Once such bonds are formed, the state can no longer impose total “one-on-one” control over individuals.

Why does totalitarianism fear these communities so much? Because an atomized society is the most fertile soil for totalitarian rule. Only when individuals lose all intermediate affiliations will they see the state as their only “family,” and the leader as their only “father.” A totalitarian regime does not want citizens—it wants subjects devoid of dignity, each a malleable “screw” in its machinery. The communities created by religious freedom are the greatest obstacle to this project of turning people into obedient subjects.

To overcome the obstacles posed by religion, totalitarian regimes employ a specific technology of rule. Totalitarianism itself is a kind of secular religion. It has its own doctrine of original sin (class enemies, inferior races), its own redemption (revolution, racial purification), its own eschatology (communist utopia, thousand-year empire), its sacraments (struggle sessions, Nuremberg rallies), and its martyrs. It demands fanatic devotion, sacrifice, and even suicidal loyalty from its followers.

Yet the earthly utopias promised by totalitarianism never come true. Stalin’s “New Soviet Man” ended in famine and gulags; Hitler’s “Thousand-Year Reich” collapsed in twelve years; the CCP’s promises of “common prosperity” and “national rejuvenation” are still trapped under the shadows of surveillance cameras and barbed wire. Religion, by contrast, offers a “vertical hope”: it does not promise the elimination of suffering but gives suffering meaning; it does not promise heaven on earth but points toward a heavenly city. The resilience of this hope is something no totalitarian utopia can replicate.

What totalitarian regimes fear most is the loss of their monopoly over the production of meaning. Totalitarianism needs you to believe that “history ends with our ideology,” but religion tells you, “History is in God’s hands.” Totalitarianism needs you to kneel before the leader’s portrait, but religion says, “All idols are false before God.” In this direct ideological confrontation, totalitarianism has never been the victor.

Even more threatening is the universalism inherent in religion, which is naturally anti-totalitarian. Totalitarianism depends on dividing the world into enemies—class enemies, racial enemies, civilizational enemies. Christianity teaches “love your enemies”; Buddhism teaches compassion for all sentient beings. These teachings directly dissolve the tension upon which totalitarian rule depends. During the 1989 democratic revolutions in Eastern Europe, Leipzig’s St. Nicholas Church gathered punks and old Party members alike for Monday peace prayers—an act that pulled the rug from under totalitarian “enemy politics.”

Conclusion

Totalitarian regimes fear religious freedom not because religion threatens public safety, but because religious freedom exposes the hypocrisy and fragility of totalitarian power. It reveals the regime’s dependence on atomizing individuals and shakes its monopoly over the spiritual realm. Under totalitarianism, religion may be “tolerated,” but only in a mutilated, controlled form—used as a prop to claim, “freedom of belief,” rather than a genuine acknowledgment of human dignity and inner freedom.

To defend religious freedom is not to privilege one doctrine over another. It is to ensure that no person is forced into ideological uniformity; not because theology is above the secular, but because faith provides the final sanctuary against totalitarian domination; not for religion’s sake, but so that those whose connections have been severed can rebuild community and regain dignity.

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作者：林养正
编辑：周志刚 责任编辑：钟然 校对：林小龙 翻译：刘芳

这是一个割裂的世界。

曾经，地球的一边在登陆月球时，地球的另一边在文化大革命。

而今天，地球的一边，ChatGPT已经帮助我们实现了儿时“万能图书馆”的梦想，可控核聚变、人工智能和脑机接口等科技共同把人类推向一个科幻小说中的时代。

地球的另一边，还处于发声即被判刑的红色恐怖中。独裁者还沉浸在秦始皇时代的长生梦中。普通人身体甚至不属于自己，器官可以被统治阶级随意摘取。

一个世界如同科幻小说般先进，一个世界还在封建时代的落后。

先进和落后体现在生活的方方面面。先进的一方最注重保护的就是代表未来的青少年儿童群体。社会尽最大努力，给孩子们营造一个自由探索、成长的环境。

学校每天下午三点放学，鼓励孩子们大量的运动、玩耍和探索。教育从人性出发，老师能够发现每一个孩子的闪光点。充满鼓励和关爱的环境让孩子自由生长，在环境中自然地学习世界与自我。

而落后的一方，学校沦为红色法西斯的极权洗脑机器。从小学到高中，从佩戴红领巾开始，从每周的升旗仪式、到军训、到思想政治课，无孔不入的洗脑充斥在中国的体制学校。

同时，天天在学校都是写不完的作业、考不完的试。学校强调竞争，强调愚昧努力，“提高一分，干掉千人”“只要学不死，就往死里学”。不考虑孩子基本的需求、不考虑身体、认知、社会情感的发展需要，初高中生时时刻刻机械地坐在椅子上，没有游戏、运动、玩耍，连睡眠的时间都不能保障充足。

而这些的共同目标，是培养孩子的服从意识，剥夺孩子们的思想，把孩子们变成没有思考能力的“举手机器”。因为只听到过一种声音，所以潜意识里把这当成了世界唯一的真理，并且在长大后成为极权的基本盘、“小粉红”。

面对这样的割裂，我们不能再假装无知。

我们生在这个时代，既能看到光，也被迫看清黑暗。

我们知道，真正的文明不靠口号，而靠每一个自由的灵魂。

我们这一代青少年，也许无法立刻改变整个国家，但我们能从拒绝被同化开始，从守护内心的思考开始。

因为，当一个人开始思考、开始质疑、开始追问“为什么”，他就已经不再是奴隶。

那么，作为清醒的青少年，我们可以做什么？

一、从保护自己开始

这里的保护自己，是指保护自己清醒的头脑、完整的身心、独立的判断与自由的意志。这既是为了让自己拥有自由，也是为了保留清醒与思考的火种。

我们必须明确意识到，在中国所谓的“成功路径”——高考、名校、大厂、996——这些，需要你从学生时代开始不断压抑自己，持续一生。把青春、创造力和思想都锁进制度的牢笼。

真正的成功，是做一个拥有自由灵魂的人。

当学校要求你用思想政治课来代替独立思考，当“升旗仪式”被当作忠诚的象征，当军训被用来训练服从——

你要记得：你的心灵不是他们的领地。

你有权不让思想被灌输，不让自由被塑形。

保护自己，也意味着保护身体与精神的完整。

不让无休止的晚自习和作业吞噬青春，不让题海取代创造，不让麻木取代好奇。

保留睡眠、运动、游戏、探索的空间，这些是一个活泼泼的青少年应有的生命节奏。

当然，在那样的环境中，清醒会被视为“叛逆”，拒绝会被当成“错误”。

因为体制学校与整个社会一样僵化，被权力与等级所统治。

他们不允许孩子提问，不允许个体存在不同的节奏。

但请记住——真正的教育是让人更自由，而不是更服从。

如果可能，争取父母的理解。

让他们知道，你不是在逃避学习，而是在守护人格。

有了家人的支持，你就能为自己争取到更多呼吸与探索的空间。

在有条件的地方，自主学习、在家上学、按兴趣探索，都是对抗僵化教育、重新夺回成长主动权的方式。

这样的选择，也许微小，实质却是非暴力不合作的抵抗行为。

它不以愤怒为武器，而以理性和自由为信仰。

当越来越多的人用行动捍卫独立意志，这种抵抗就会在沉默中积蓄力量。

革命不是从空喊口号开始，而是从一个个选择做自己的人开始。

二、点对点传播自由理念思想

点对点传播，即人与人之间在线下、以及安全的线上平台间小范围传播自由思想和反共理念。这个概念出自彭立发《倒习攻略》，也是在《倒习攻略》提到的抗争方式中，个人认为风险相对最低的一种方式。

具体到我们能做的事情，就是：

把中国体制的危害，告诉身边的每一个人。

你可以在老师讲完思想政治课后，在课间跟同学们讲一遍真实的政治事件。

你可以在争取父母支持的过程中，顺便跟父母普及中共的历史暴行。

把真相的声音，传播给你交际范围内可能传递给的每一个人。

也许一个人的力量微弱渺小，但不要忘了—每一个清醒的人，都可能向他们的交际圈传播真相。

这是一个指数增长的过程，你每传播的一份真相，都可能在未来影响到成百上千的人。

星星之火可以燎原，过了某一个临界点，社会就可以变天。

这个过程中，重要的，是有理有据，逻辑清晰。

中共的网络防火墙屏蔽了真相，让这个社会只有谎言一种声音。

但谎言的力量压不住真相，真理终究是越辩越明的。

而这个过程本身，也是一个基于真实问题的PBL项目制学习。

比在题海中刷题有意义千万倍。

另外，不要恐惧这么做，是否可能给你带来什么人身危险。

当然，恐惧是正常的，即使是成年人也会对极权产生恐惧。

极权正是靠着传播恐惧来迫使人自我审查，把反抗力量原子化打散为散沙，才能维持他们的统治。

但你们要知道，点对点传播之所以比公开传播安全，就是因为这种方式很难被发现。

他们可以监控公开演讲，监控互联网，却不可能强制在班级、一个人的家里、在窃窃私语间装摄像头。

窃窃私语，正是最安全的抗争方法。

你们还要知道一点，中国的刑法第十七条规定，未满十六周岁的人，除了八种严重暴力犯罪外，对其他类型犯罪以及治安违法不承担责任。

也就是说，他们一切常用的借口，寻衅滋事，煽动颠覆，都不能被使用到你们身上。

他们能做的只有批评教育、至多至多以“影响未来考公”“学校把你开除”威胁你。

对于清醒的我们来说，这样的威胁简直可笑。

考公，成为那个体制的一员，与他们同流合污，本身就是一件耻辱的事情。

退学，正好可以不用接受体制教育，彻底摆脱题海和洗脑，有充分的时间探索自己真正感兴趣的领域。

人是一颗会思考的芦苇。

当你守护住了自由的思想，也就守护住了未来的火种。

三、我们的未来是星辰大海

这句话，既是物理意义上的，也是精神意义上的。

我们的未来，拥有无限的可能。也许是在火星上度过七日假期，也许是在全息世界中自由学习万物的知识。

当下，人工智能早已在围棋和象棋上战胜人类绝顶高手，ChatGPT已经可以帮助我们学习任何知识。

未来，在机械记忆方面，人类可能被人工智能完全碾压。现在的一切重复性工作，可能被人工智能完全代替。

只有思考，想象，探索，创造，才是不可被替代的独属于人类的能力。

千万不要被任何人，任何权利，任何制度，夺走这些属于人类最宝贵的能力。那是人类区别于机器和奴隶的根本。

让我们仰望星空，地球上的极权和暴政，只是宇宙长河中短暂的闪烁。

王朝与时代如焰火般燃起又熄灭，从石器的回声到钢铁的轰鸣，不过是宇宙的一次呼吸。

极权与专制，也在这呼吸间诞生，在下一瞬便归于尘土。

那根被古猿抛向天空的骨头棒，还未落地，就化作了能穿越银河的飞船。

唯有自由与创造，是人类文明中能穿越时间的光。

我们所能做的，就是守护那份光，守护心中对真理与未知的渴望，让自己随时准备迎接那个属于自由人类的新时代。

唯有自由的灵魂，才能真正航向星辰大海。

A Letter to All Young People in China

Author: Lin Yangzheng
Editor: Zhou Zhigang Executive Editor: Zhong Ran Proofreader: Lin Xiaolong Translator: Liu Fang

Abstract: This article reveals what constitutes an advanced world and what constitutes a backward one. It exposes the mechanisms of ideological brainwashing and mind control in China’s totalitarian system, calling on young people to safeguard free thought and resist assimilation, to spread truth through point-to-point communication, to remain clear-minded and independent, and to meet the future—toward the stars and the sea—with freedom and creativity.

This is a fractured world. Once, when one side of the Earth was landing on the moon, the other side was engulfed in the Cultural Revolution. And today, on one side of the planet, ChatGPT has helped us fulfill the childhood dream of a “universal library,” while controllable nuclear fusion, artificial intelligence, and brain-computer interfaces are propelling humanity into an era that looks like science fiction. On the other side of the Earth, people still live under a red terror where speaking out leads to imprisonment. Dictators still indulge in the ancient fantasy of immortality. Ordinary people do not even own their bodies—organs can be harvested at will by the ruling class. One world is as advanced as a sci-fi future; the other is as backward as a feudal past.

Advancement and backwardness show themselves in every aspect of life. The advanced world treats its children and teenagers—the carriers of the future—as its most precious treasure. Society does everything possible to create an environment where children can explore freely and grow naturally. Schools end at three o’clock in the afternoon, encouraging students to engage abundantly in sports, play, and exploration. Education begins with human nature; teachers identify each student’s strengths. A supportive, loving environment allows children to flourish and naturally learn about the world and themselves. In the backward world, schools are reduced to totalitarian indoctrination machines of red fascism. From elementary school to high school, from wearing the red scarf to weekly flag-raising ceremonies, to military training, to ideological and political classes—brainwashing permeates every corner of China’s state-run education system. Meanwhile, days are filled with endless homework and continuous exams. Schools glorify competition and mindless exertion: “Increase your score by one point, defeat a thousand others,” “If studying doesn’t kill you, study harder until it does.” They ignore children’s basic needs, their physical, cognitive, and emotional development. Middle and high school students sit mechanically in chairs for hours on end—no play, no sports, no rest, not even sufficient sleep. The shared goal behind it all is to cultivate obedience, strip young people of independent thought, and turn them into mindless “hand-raising machines.” Having heard only one voice their entire lives, they subconsciously mistake propaganda for universal truth—and eventually grow into the regime’s loyal base, the so-called “little pinks.”

Faced with such a divided world, we can no longer pretend to be ignorant. We were born in an era where we can see both the light and the darkness. We know that true civilization is not built on slogans—it is built on every free soul. Our generation of young people may not be able to change the entire nation right away. But we can begin by refusing to be assimilated—by guarding the space for independent thought in our hearts. Because when a person begins to think, to question, to ask “why,” he is no longer a slave.

So what can we do as young people who choose to stay awake?

First, start by protecting yourself. Here, protecting yourself means protecting your clear mind, your intact body and soul, your independent judgment, and your free will. This is not only for the sake of your own freedom, but also to preserve the spark of clarity and thought. We must clearly recognize that the so-called “path to success” in China—college entrance exams, elite universities, big tech companies, 996 work culture—requires decades of self-suppression beginning in childhood. Youth, creativity, and thought are all locked inside the iron cage of the system. True success is to become a person with a free soul.

When schools demand that ideological classes replace independent thinking, when flag-raising ceremonies become symbols of loyalty, when military training is used to instill obedience— remember: your mind is not their territory. You have the right to resist indoctrination and defend your inner freedom.

Protecting yourself also means protecting the integrity of your body and spirit. Do not let endless night classes and homework consume your youth. Do not let test drills replace creativity. Do not let numbness replace curiosity. Preserve time for sleep, movement, play, and exploration—this is the living rhythm every young person deserves.

Of course, in such an environment, staying awake will be labeled “rebellion,” and refusal will be treated as “wrong.” Because the entire school system, like society at large, is rigid and governed by power and hierarchy. They do not allow children to ask questions, nor do they allow individuals to live at their own pace. But remember—true education makes people free, not obedient.

If possible, seek your parents’ understanding. Let them know that you are not avoiding learning—you are protecting your personhood. With their support, you can reclaim more room to breathe and explore.

Where conditions permit, self-directed learning, homeschooling, and interest-based exploration are all ways to resist rigid schooling and reclaim agency over your own growth. Such choices may seem small, but they are acts of non-violent, non-cooperative resistance. They take reason and freedom—not anger—as their weapons. When more and more people defend their independent will through action, resistance will quietly accumulate power. Revolutions do not begin with shouting slogans—they begin when individuals insist on being themselves.

Second, spread ideas of freedom through point-to-point communication. Point-to-point communication means sharing ideas about freedom and anti-authoritarianism in small, private circles—offline or through safe online channels. This concept comes from Peng Lifa’s “Guide to Bringing Down Xi,” and among the methods it proposes, this is arguably the least risky.

In practice, this means: Tell everyone around you about the harms of China’s system. When your teacher finishes an ideological class, talk to your classmates during break about real political events. When you seek your parents’ understanding, explain to them the CCP’s historical atrocities. Spread the truth to everyone within your social circle who might pass it on. One person’s power may seem small, but remember—every awakened individual may pass on truth to their entire network. This is an exponential process. Each truth you spread may influence hundreds or thousands in the future. A single spark can start a prairie fire; once a critical mass is reached, society can change overnight.

In this process, what matters is being factual and logical. The CCP’s firewall blocks truth, leaving only lies in the public sphere. But lies cannot suppress truth; truth becomes clearer through debate. This process itself is a real PBL (project-based learning) rooted in real-world issues—far more meaningful than drowning in exam drills.

Do not fear that doing this might endanger you. Fear is normal—even adults feel fear before a dictatorship. Dictatorships rely on spreading fear to force self-censorship, fragmenting resistance into grains of sand. But remember, point-to-point communication is safer precisely because it is hard to detect. They can monitor public speeches and the internet, but they cannot plant cameras in your classroom conversations, in your living room, or in whispered exchanges. Whispers are the safest form of resistance.

And remember this: Article 17 of China’s Criminal Law states that except for eight serious violent crimes, minors under sixteen bear no criminal responsibility. Which means their usual charges—“picking quarrels,” “inciting subversion,” and so on—cannot be used against you. All they can do is “criticize and educate” you or threaten you with “affecting future government recruitment” or “school expulsion.”

To those of us who are awake, such threats are laughable. Joining the government and becoming part of that system—becoming complicit with it—is a disgrace in itself. Being expelled from school may even liberate you from indoctrination, freeing you from endless exams and allowing you to explore what truly interests you. A human being is a thinking reed. By safeguarding free thought, you safeguard the fire that lights the future.

Third, our future is the sea of stars. This is true both physically and spiritually. Our future holds infinite possibilities. Perhaps one day we will spend a week-long vacation on Mars, or freely learn everything about the universe in a holographic world. Today, AI has already defeated human champions in Go and chess. ChatGPT can help us learn nearly anything. In the future, artificial intelligence may surpass humans entirely in mechanical memory. All repetitive work may be replaced completely by AI. Only thinking, imagining, exploring, and creating will remain uniquely human. Do not let anyone—any power, any system—take away these most precious human abilities. They are what distinguish human beings from machines and slaves.

Let us look up at the stars. The tyranny and oppression on Earth are but brief flickers in the river of the universe. Dynasties and eras rise and fall like fireworks; from the echoes of stone tools to the roar of steel, it is all but a single breath in cosmic time. Totalitarianism and despotism are born in this breath—and in the next, they return to dust. The bone-club thrown by ancient apes had not yet fallen to Earth when it transformed into a starship capable of crossing the galaxy. Only freedom and creativity are lights of human civilization capable of crossing time.

What we must do is guard that light—guard our hunger for truth and the unknown—so that we are always ready to welcome the new era that belongs to a free humanity. Only a free soul can truly sail toward the sea of stars.

作者：萧钦元
编辑：Gloria wang　责任编辑：刘芳 校对：熊辩 翻译：刘芳

浮世多沉痛，有怨积千重。

恶吏骄奢淫逸，贪腐更无穷。

庙堂夙夜笙歌，万税噬吞山岳，千疮又百孔。

王侯似虎狼，百姓若飞虫。

呼苍天，换新颜，声正浓。

乌云翻涌，风雨飘摇战旗红。

待到黎民梦醒，何惧遍地狼烟，你我共从容。

人间有正道，沧桑归大同。

Water Melody: The Vicissitudes of the Human World(Shui Diao Ge Tou · The Changes of the Mortal Realm)

Author: Xiao Qin-Yuan
Editor: Gloria Wang Executive Editor: Liu Fang Proofreader: Xiong Bian Translator: Liu Fang

The fleeting world bears endless pain, its grievances piled a thousandfold.

Vile officials indulge in arrogance and decadence, and corruption knows no bounds.

In the high halls, music and revelry echo day and night, while ten thousand taxes devour mountains, leaving wounds upon wounds, holes upon holes.

Lords and nobles prowl like wolves and tigers; the common people scatter like insects in the wind.

We cry to the vast heavens—let a new visage rise, let righteous voices swell.Dark clouds surge and churn, storms toss the red battle flags.

When the people finally awaken from their long dream, why fear the smoke of war everywhere?

You and I shall meet it with calm resolve.

For righteousness lives in this human world, and through its trials we move toward great harmony.

作者：萧钦元
編輯：gloria wang 责任编辑：刘芳 校对：熊辩 翻译：刘芳

壮士策马行，扬鞭志未宁。
胸怀君王事，南渡跨长陵。
赤地尽纵横，铁蹄遍青冥。
挥戈扫八荒，剑气动四邻。
旌旗映日辉，战鼓震天鸣。
百战何所惧，豪气贯凌云。
黄沙掩不尽，平生自常青。
大梦历寒暑，天地共长行。

To Youth

Author: Xiao Qin-Yuan
Editor: Gloria Wang Executive Editor: Liu Fang Proofreader: Xiong Bian Translator: Liu Fang

The valiant rider urges his steed onward, his restless will unrestrained.
With royal duty in his heart, he crosses the southern plains and distant ridges.
Across scorched and endless lands, his iron hooves thunder beneath the vast sky.
With a sweeping blade he clears the wilds, his sword-aura stirring all around.
Banners blaze beneath the sun, and war drums roar up to the heavens.
A hundred battles hold no fear; his bold spirit pierces the clouds.
Though yellow sands may cover all, his life remains evergreen.
Through seasons cold and warm he pursues his great dream, journeying long with heaven and earth.

作者：陀先润
编辑：李堃 责任编辑：刘芳 校对：林小龙 翻译：彭小梅

又到了读公报、聊公报的时间。十天前，有人信誓旦旦地说，四中全会将有大变，习近平要下台。我笑而不语。如今尘埃落定，他依然稳坐其位，全党全军依旧紧紧围绕在“以习近平为核心”的周围。转播画面里，所有人都正襟危坐，唯有张又侠低头翻阅报告，神色淡然。有人说他是反习的老大，这种说法可笑。只有被信任到骨子里的人，才敢在群臣如履薄冰时随意翻页。

很多人讨厌共产党，不愿意读公报，觉得那是空话、套话、假话。错了。越是假话的时代，真话就越藏在行间。这次的公报最值得注意的，是那几个被重新启用的词汇。

第一个是“经济自给自足”。这四个字，几十年没在中央文件中出现过。过去只说“粮食安全”，现在直接讲经济自给自足。这不是口号，而是判断，是对未来局势的预判。北京已经意识到，在未来五年乃至更长的时间里，中国将被长期制裁与封锁。自给自足不是主动闭关，而是被迫闭关的预演。一个外贸驱动的国家，突然要自给自足，意味着从原料、市场到金融体系都要重组。从重建供销社，到区域粮食安全，再到成品油和化工体系，本是“只做不说”的底层动作，如今被写进公报，说明他们已不再掩饰。中国在为“被切断”做准备。未来五年，海外情报系统的任务将从偷技术转向建渠道——走私物资、秘密结算、规避制裁。这将是一场悄无声息的“伊朗化”转型。

第二个是“边斗争、边备战、边建设”。很多人说是首次出现，其实不是。这个词最早出现在1962年的《解放军报》。那时的中国，也正经历饥荒与内斗。这次不同的是，它第一次出现在中央全会公报中，意味着这不再是军内密语，而是全党共识。斗争，是内部的；备战，是外部的；建设，是苦撑的。这三个方向，正是六十年代老路的翻版。当一个政权在文件里公开使用这样的语言，说明它已经进入长期备战状态——政治斗争长期化，军事备战常态化，经济困难结构化。

第三个是“推动国家统一”。以前的说法是“促进”“推进”，这次改为“推动”。措辞的变化，就是立场的转变。“和平统一”四个字，彻底消失。能和平统就和平统，不能和平统，也要统。台湾问题不再是外交话题，而是军事议程。

与此同时，军队清洗仍在继续。火箭军上将被一锅端，中央委员成批被开除。很多人还在幻想军中反习，但他们忘了，中国的政治逻辑是：被破格提拔的人，死得最快。因为他们没有派系，只有一个靠山——那个提拔他们的人。当靠山不再需要他们，清除起来毫不手软。有人说这是宫斗，错，这不是宫斗，而是体制的自我防御机制。它靠不断清洗维持忠诚，靠持续斗争延续统治。

现在的中共，正在重走1960年代的路线——经济上自我封闭，政治上自我净化，军队上自我恐惧。“十五五”规划的关键词已经摆在台面上：经济自给自足，边斗争、边备战、边建设，推动国家统一。这三个方向加在一起，就是一个字——紧。国家要紧，社会要紧，思想要紧，生活也要紧。空气越来越稀薄，言语越来越危险。

我们能做什么？也许，只能思考如何在“紧”的时代活下去。不是躲避风暴，而是活得比别人久一点，清醒一点。因为当一个国家开始谈“自给自足”，开始强调“备战与斗争”，那意味着它已经不再相信世界，也不再相信人民。它只相信管控，只相信收紧。

时代的齿轮正在倒转。有人还在幻想变革，有人还在为套话鼓掌。历史早已告诉我们，最危险的不是狂热，而是沉默。

所以，四中全会没有新消息，只有旧路重来。只是这一次，连伪装都省了。

The New Language of the Fourth Plenary Session: Self-Reliance, Preparing for War While Building — The Era Is Tightening

Author: Tuo Xianrun
Edited : Li Kun Managing Editor: Liu Fang Proofread: Lin Xiaolong Translated : Xiaomei Peng

Abstract:By examining the subtle shifts in wording within the CCP’s communiqué from the Fourth Plenary Session, this article interprets the emerging direction of China’s political, economic, and military landscape. The changes reveal an increasingly closed, defensive, and tense regime preparing for long-term confrontation with the outside world.

It’s that time again—reading and dissecting the Party communiqué.Ten days ago, some confidently predicted that the Fourth Plenary Session would bring a major upheaval—that Xi Jinping would step down. I merely smiled. Now that the dust has settled, Xi remains firmly in power, and the Party and the army continue to “unite closely around the core.” In the televised footage, everyone sat stiffly at attention—except Zhang Youxia, who calmly flipped through the report. Some called him the “anti-Xi commander,” but that’s absurd. Only those trusted to the bone dare to appear relaxed when everyone else walks on eggshells.

Many people dislike the Communist Party so much that they refuse to read its communiqués, dismissing them as hollow slogans and clichés. That’s a mistake. The emptier the era, the more truth hides between the lines. In this communiqué, several words and phrases—quietly reintroduced after decades—reveal much about China’s direction.

“Economic Self-Reliance” These four words have not appeared in central government documents for decades. In the past, officials spoke only of “food security.” Now, they speak plainly of economic self-reliance. This is not propaganda—it is a forecast. Beijing has realized that in the next five years, or longer, China will face sustained sanctions and isolation. Self-reliance is not a voluntary retreat—it’s a rehearsal for forced seclusion. For a country dependent on exports, shifting to self-reliance means restructuring everything—from raw materials and supply chains to financial systems. The revival of supply cooperatives, regional grain security plans, and domestic energy systems—once quiet bureaucratic operations—are now written into official policy. This is an open admission that China is preparing for “being cut off.”In the coming years, the focus of China’s overseas intelligence work will shift—from stealing technology to building covert logistics networks: smuggling materials, bypassing sanctions, and conducting secret settlements. Quietly, China is entering an “Iranization” phase of transformation.

“Fighting, Preparing for War, and Building Simultaneously “Many claim this phrase is new—it isn’t. It first appeared in PLA Daily in 1962, when China was also reeling from famine and internal purges. What is new is its appearance in a central plenary communiqué, elevating it from a military slogan to a Party-wide consensus. “Fighting” refers to internal struggle; “Preparing for war” refers to external confrontation; “Building” refers to holding the line economically. Together, they revive the logic of the 1960s: political struggle institutionalized, military readiness normalized, economic hardship entrenched.

When a regime begins to use this kind of language in its formal documents, it signals the start of a permanent wartime posture—both politically and psychologically.

“Advancing National Unification” Previously, the term used was “promoting” or “facilitating” unification. Now it has shifted to “advancing.” This subtle change marks a major turn in attitude. The phrase “peaceful reunification” has disappeared entirely. The message is clear: “If unification can be achieved peacefully, so be it; if not, it will still be achieved. “The Taiwan issue is no longer a diplomatic topic—it has been moved to the military agenda.

Meanwhile, purges within the military continue. Entire branches, like the Rocket Force, have been wiped out; dozens of Central Committee members expelled. Some still fantasize about a “pro-anti-Xi” faction within the army—but they misunderstand China’s political DNA. In this system, those promoted beyond normal rank die the fastest. They have no faction—only one patron, the man who promoted them. And when that patron no longer needs them, their fall is swift and merciless. This is not palace intrigue—it’s the regime’s self-defense mechanism. It survives through constant purges and perpetual internal struggle.

Today’s CCP is retracing the path of the 1960s: Economic self-isolation, political purification, and military fear. The next Five-Year Plan—“The 15th Plan”—already defines its priorities: economic self-reliance，simultaneous struggle, mobilization, construction，advancing national unification. Together, these form a single word: tight. The state tightens; society tightens; thought tightens; and daily life tightens. The air grows thinner, speech more dangerous.

What Can We Do? Perhaps nothing—except to think about how to live in an age of tightening. Not to flee the storm, but to survive a little longer, and stay a little clearer. Because when a country begins to talk about “self-reliance,” and emphasizes “struggle and preparation for war,” it means it no longer trusts the world—or its own people. It trusts only control.

The gears of history are turning backward. Some still dream of reform; others still applaud slogans. But history has already spoken: The greatest danger is not fanaticism—it is silence.

So no, the Fourth Plenary Session brought no “new message”. Only the return of an old path—this time, without the disguise.

作者：宇宙大觀　
編輯：鍾然 責任編輯：劉芳 校對：程筱筱 翻译：彭小梅

村山富市，日本前首相，出身平民，是戰後日本少有的平民政治家。他為人溫和謙遜，作風誠懇，重視多元意見和民主討論。村山富市最大的政治遺產就是他在首相任上發表的《村山談話》，反省日本在二戰中的＂植民地支配＂和＂侵略＂的歷史錯誤，對岸中共政權則表示“歡迎”，至今要求日本政府“奉守”云云。在我看來，村山大愛的純徹明朗，恰恰映襯出中共邪惡之陰黑骯髒。

《村山談話》反映了日本人對二戰的反省思考，在民主多元環境下，只是其中的一元，村山先生必須面對各種不同意見的質疑和反對。從當年新手議員高市早苗到大學生，多有當面對話辯論，村山先生溫文尔雅平和待人等優質人格溢於言表。更重要的是作為出身平民回歸平民的政治家，沒有任何對權益的執著依戀，他的居家依然是一直以來的平民小屋，我每每陪中國人造訪這位日本前首相之家，無人不感慨這連中國一個村長都不如⋯⋯我與村山先生的交往，除了感受到老人家對中國人的友善，就是內心無欲之純靜。這對我是最重要的感染所在，得以用來維護自己的獨立人格。

但與村山先生一樣，許多強調“日中友好”的日本人，注重於自己的歷史內省和良好願望，缺乏或不願對對岸中共政權邪惡本質作更多了解，以為“以心傳心”，傳達善意即可，這樣很容易落入中共的陷阱，被邪惡利用。

中共的邪惡是深不見底的，它們利用日本侵華偽裝抗日壯大自己，翅膀一硬叛亂奪權：它們高宣民主蛊惑人民一旦奪權便將人民權利剝奪殆盡，任意打殺搶掠；它們自稱“無產階級革命”、“為人民服務”，個個把自己搞成超級資產階級腐敗分子再用金錢腐化他人；它們從“謝日”到“反日”要求日本不忘歷史而它們自己殘害中國人的罪行則一律掩蓋抵賴；它們所有的承諾都是陰謀詭計，唯用不受任何制約的“超限戰”來對付它認為的障礙；由於它挾持廣大國土和龐大人口加上軍力，外部無奈它何，連對全世界發動生化戰爭的罪責也無法追究⋯⋯

我曾向村山富市先生推薦王康們的“浩氣長流”，表示中華民國才是日中戰爭時的中方，請他為“浩氣長流”畫冊題了辭；我也曾向村山先生贈送過陳破空的書籍，請他對中共多作了解；後來我也向他贈送了我的《中國人權英雄畫傳》一書，由於老先生早就了解了我的父親早年被共匪害死的事情，對我的反共表示了一定的理解⋯⋯

《村山談話》的最後一段“必須推廣和平的理念和民主主義”，中共是加以無視的，因為它們獨裁上瘾，崇尚暴力和陰謀詭計，越來越黨軍國主義，在邪惡的黑道上越發加速，進而與其它獨裁邪惡勢力狼狽為奸，成為當今文明世界的最大威脅。

《村山談話》作為一個日本官宣文件自有其歷史地位，但中共的無盡邪惡被不斷暴露，促使日本民意向反中共國的方向變動，也是民主政治的自主優化之必然。

Murayama’s Goodwill and the CCP’s Evil

Author: Yu Zhou Da Guan
Edited:Zhong Ran Managing Editor: Liu Fang Proofread: Cheng Xiaoxiao Translated: Xiaomei Peng

Abstract:Using the Murayama Statement as a point of reflection, this essay praises former Japanese Prime Minister Tomiichi Murayama for his courage and moral integrity in acknowledging Japan’s wartime aggression. At the same time, it condemns the hypocrisy and malice of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), which manipulates history for its own political agenda. The author calls on Japan to remain alert to the CCP’s true nature and to uphold the principles of democracy and peace.

Former Prime Minister Tomiichi Murayama was one of the few postwar Japanese leaders who truly rose from among the people. Mild in temperament, humble in manner, and sincere in conduct, Murayama valued open discussion and democratic diversity. His greatest political legacy was the Murayama Statement, in which he publicly acknowledged and apologized for Japan’s “colonial rule and aggression” during World War II. The CCP government across the sea claimed to “welcome” the statement and continues to demand that Japan “adhere” to it. Yet to me, Murayama’s sincere moral courage and his transparent compassion only serve to highlight the CCP’s darkness and deceit.

The Murayama Statement reflects Japan’s pluralistic self-examination of its wartime past within a democratic society. Murayama faced questions and criticism from all sides—from new Diet members such as Sanae Takaichi to outspoken university students—and he always responded with calmness and grace. His gentlemanly demeanor and moral integrity were unmistakable.

More importantly, Murayama was a man who came from ordinary people and returned to them. He never sought privilege or wealth; his modest home remained unchanged even after serving as prime minister. Every time I accompanied Chinese visitors to his residence, they were deeply moved—many remarked that even a village chief in China lived far more lavishly.In all my interactions with Murayama, I sensed only his goodwill toward Chinese people and his inner peace born of detachment from personal gain. That purity deeply influenced me and strengthened my own sense of moral independence.

However, like Murayama, many Japanese who emphasize “Sino-Japanese friendship” focus mainly on their own historical reflection and goodwill, while neglecting—or refusing—to recognize the evil nature of the CCP. Believing that “heart-to-heart understanding” can bridge political divides, they often fall into the CCP’s trap and become instruments of its manipulation.

The CCP’s evil is unfathomable. It exploited Japan’s invasion of China to masquerade as a resistance force, then betrayed its allies and seized power through violence. It once shouted slogans of “democracy” to deceive the masses, only to strip the people of all rights once in control. It called itself “the proletarian revolution” and claimed to “serve the people,” yet its leaders became the most corrupt elite, using money to corrupt others. From “gratitude to Japan” to “anti-Japanese nationalism,” it has cynically demanded that Japan “never forget history,” while covering up its own atrocities against the Chinese people. Every promise it makes conceals a conspiracy. It practices unrestricted warfare against anything it sees as an obstacle—without moral or legal restraint.Backed by vast land, population, and military power, it faces little accountability from the outside world—not even for unleashing a global biological catastrophe.

I once recommended to Mr. Murayama the historical art collection The Flow of Heroic Spirit by Wang Kang, emphasizing that the Republic of China (Taiwan), not the CCP, was the legitimate Chinese government during the war. He kindly wrote an inscription for it. I also gifted him books by Chen Pokong to help him understand the CCP’s true nature, as well as my own work Portraits of China’s Human Rights Heroes. Knowing that my father had been killed by the communists in his youth, Mr. Murayama expressed genuine sympathy and understanding for my anti-communist position.

The closing line of the Murayama Statement— “We must spread the ideals of peace and democracy”—has been completely ignored by the CCP. Addicted to dictatorship, it glorifies violence and conspiracy, marching ever deeper into militarism and tyranny. It now conspires with other authoritarian regimes, forming an unholy alliance that threatens the civilized world.

While the Murayama Statement retains its historical value as an official declaration of Japan, the CCP’s ever-exposed crimes have gradually shifted Japanese public opinion toward rejecting the communist regime. This evolution represents the natural self-correction of a healthy democracy.

作者：陀先润
编辑：周志刚 责任编辑：罗志飞 校对：林小龙 翻译：彭小梅

随着中共20届四中全会的临近，各种传闻和谣言如潮水般涌来。从所谓“元老PK”到“政变在即”，这些故事在海外自媒体和社交平台上流传甚广。然而，我认为这些传闻大多缺乏事实基础，甚至违背基本的政治逻辑。本文旨在剖析这些谣言的荒谬之处，并揭示中共体制的深层问题——不是某个领导人的个人作风，而是整个政党的本质缺陷。

四中全会原定于去年召开，却被推迟至今年。这本是中共一贯的“宁缺毋滥”作风：如果党内共识未成，或领导层感到形势不稳，便宁可不开。回顾历史，毛泽东时代曾数年不开党代会；习近平去年也以此拖延。早在7月30日，新华社就发布了会议消息，内容与当前基本一致，这表明早在7月前，党内各派已达成相对平衡。会议定于10月20日至23日举行，主要议题未变，何来“剧变”一说？

然而，谣言却将此描绘成一场“黑手党式”对决：元老们与习近平在会上“投票拉锯”，开会前各方拉拢势力、比拼票数，甚至有人“犹豫不决”。这完全是西方式民主幻想的投射，与中共的运作模式格格不入。中央委员的投票并非随意，每一票背后牵扯利益网络和权力平衡。这种“拍桌子瞪眼”的场景，更像是意大利黑帮电影，而非北京中南海的现实。

更耸人听闻的是“政变”谣言。传闻称汪洋或胡春华将上位，借助军方力量：张又侠“反水”，刘源“回归”，掌控军队，将习近平软禁。四中全会仅剩“宣布喜讯”——习近平只剩国家主席虚衔，至明年结束。

这些说法忽略了政变的本质：在任期未满时推翻总书记、军委主席和国家元首，在任何体制下均属政变。中共历史上确有先例：1976年逮捕“四人帮”、胡耀邦下台、赵紫阳事件。但每次政变均为控制当事人后立即宣布，并召开特别会议确认合法性。拖延数月至十月再宣？这是“夜长梦多”的自杀行为，历史上鲜有成功案例。

近期，何卫东、苗华等9名上将被开除党籍军籍，涉嫌严重职务犯罪。谣言称这是“清洗异己”，暗示军队反叛。但若真如此，习近平早被捕、“喜讯”早已公布。事实是，这些动作说明他仍掌控大局，继续巩固权力。刘源虽出身显赫，但军队基础薄弱——半路转任，反腐得罪诸多将领，难以掌控。张又侠或许尚有影响力，但刘源难成气候。

我理解这些谣言的流行：自媒体为流量编造“爽文”，迎合海外华人的不满情绪。许多人长期憋屈，便寄希望于“万一成真”，明知虚假仍愿倾听。但这无济于事。更扎心的是：在特朗普政策间接助益中共、习近平和普京的国际环境下，谁愿接手这个“烂摊子”？

有人幻想胡春华或汪洋上台，即可“改弦更张”：对美妥协、结束贸易战、重返全球化。这是中产阶层的美梦。他们首先是中共成员，首要目标是维护党的存续。全面认输？短期或缓和经济，但将摧毁党的基本盘——民族主义者和“小粉红”难以接受，“独立自主”原则荡然无存。谁如此行事，谁将面临亡党危机。更何况，中美冲突已渐行渐远，非一时之争，而是意识形态和地缘政治的深层对立。

四中全会即将召开，习近平去留自有分晓。但我明确表态：期待四天内他下台、交出实权、仅剩虚衔？此景不会出现。我们不妨打赌，静观其变。

此类幻想常源于“换人即变天”的错觉：踹掉习近平，来个“明君”，中国就新生。回顾中共党史和历次政治运动，便知并非如此。这不是个体问题，而是中共本质缺陷。该党不变革，换多少领导亦徒劳。习近平并非“开倒车”，而是踩油门加速原有路径，并拉开车窗帘，让乘客看清冲向悬崖的方向。过去虽缓慢前行，却遮蔽视线，大家在车厢里高唱《一条大河》，喊着“没有共产党就没有新中国，党带领我们吃上肉了。

今日之言或许消极，但事实如此。若不愿面对，可选择官方新闻联播，沉浸正能量幻觉；或浏览某些海外节目，如大纪元、希望之声，幻想明天习近平下台，后天中国美好。想自欺欺人？此类内容可暂缓情绪。但若真心求索，我唯有实言：中共不亡，中国难变。这不是悲观，而是对历史的清醒认知。《在野党》杂志作为独立声音的平台，应继续揭露这些真相，推动海外华人反思。

Rumors Around the Fourth Plenary Session: The Illusion of Xi’s Downfall and the Unchanging Nature of the CCP

Author: Tuo Xianrun
Edited: Zhou Zhigang Managing Editor: Luo Zhifei Proofread: Lin Xiaolong Translated: Xiaomei Peng

Abstract:This article examines the widespread rumors surrounding the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) upcoming Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee—claims such as “Wang Yang or Hu Chunhua will take power with military backing,” “Zhang Youxia has defected,” or “Liu Yuan will return and place Xi under house arrest.” The author argues that these stories are baseless and politically illogical. Even if Xi were to step down, the CCP’s fundamental nature would remain unchanged.

As the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CCP Central Committee approaches, a flood of rumors has emerged. From supposed “power struggles among party elders” to “an imminent coup,” such tales have spread widely across overseas media and social platforms. Yet most lack factual foundation and contradict the basic logic of how the CCP operates. This essay dissects the absurdity of these rumors and reveals the deeper truth: the real problem lies not in any one leader’s personality, but in the structural corruption and nature of the Party itself.

Originally scheduled for last year, the session was postponed—consistent with the CCP’s habitual “better none than instability” approach. When internal consensus falters or political tension rises, it simply delays meetings. Historically, Mao Zedong went years without holding Party congresses; Xi Jinping did the same last year.By July 30, Xinhua News Agency had already announced the conference and its themes, suggesting that by mid-summer the factions had reached equilibrium. The meeting, set for October 20–23, retains its original agenda—hardly a sign of upheaval.

Yet rumormongers describe it as a “mafia-style showdown” in Zhongnanhai: elders confronting Xi in a vote, factions bargaining for influence, and delegates wavering in their loyalties. Such stories are pure fantasy—a Western projection of democratic politics onto an authoritarian machine. In the CCP, a vote is never free; every ballot reflects complex networks of patronage and power balance. The imagined scene of people shouting and slamming tables belongs more to The Godfather than to Beijing’s political reality.

Even more sensational are the coup narratives: claims that Wang Yang or Hu Chunhua will take over with the army’s support; that General Zhang Youxia has turned against Xi; that Liu Yuan is returning to command the military and will place Xi under house arrest. Supposedly, the Plenary Session will “announce the good news”—Xi demoted to a ceremonial presidency by year’s end.

These scenarios ignore the essence of a coup: forcibly removing the General Secretary, Chairman of the Central Military Commission, and Head of State before term’s end. The CCP has seen power struggles before—the arrest of the Gang of Four (1976), Hu Yaobang’s ouster, Zhao Ziyang’s purge—but in each case, the operation was swift, announced immediately, and followed by an emergency meeting to legitimize it. To delay months until October would be political suicide.

Recent purges of nine senior generals—including He Weidong and Miao Hua—were interpreted by rumor mills as “cleansing rivals.” If true, Xi would have already fallen, and the “good news” proclaimed. Instead, the opposite is true: such purges show Xi still consolidates control. Liu Yuan, though well connected, lacks a solid military base—his anti-corruption crusade alienated key officers. Zhang Youxia retains influence, but Liu Yuan is unlikely to mount any real challenge.

The popularity of these rumors is understandable. Overseas Chinese, long frustrated with China’s authoritarian system, yearn for “what if” stories that offer emotional relief. Many self-media creators exploit this sentiment for traffic, crafting “feel-good fiction” that fuels fleeting hope. Yet none of this changes reality.

Some imagine that if Hu Chunhua or Wang Yang took power, China would “change course”—reconcile with the U.S., end trade wars, and return to globalization. Such dreams belong to the urban middle class. But these figures are first and foremost Party members; their priority is the CCP’s survival. To “surrender” to the West might temporarily ease economic pain but would alienate nationalists and Party loyalists—triggering a legitimacy crisis and even collapse.Moreover, the U.S.–China confrontation is no longer about tariffs or tactics; it is a deep ideological and geopolitical divide.

As the plenary session begins, Xi’s political fate will become clearer—but expecting him to lose real power within four days is naïve. If anyone wishes to wager otherwise, let’s wait and see.

Such fantasies stem from the illusion that “changing the leader means changing China.” History proves otherwise. The CCP’s crises are systemic, not personal. Replacing one leader with other changes nothing. Xi is not “driving in reverse”—he’s flooring the accelerator on the same old road, only pulling back the curtain so passengers can finally see the cliff ahead. In the past, the car moved slower, and people sang songs of praise, believing “Without the Party, there would be no New China.”

This may sound pessimistic, but it is reality. Those who prefer denial can turn to state propaganda for “positive energy,” or watch certain exile channels promising that “Xi will fall tomorrow, and China will be free the day after.” Such illusions may offer emotional comfort—but for those who truly seek understanding, there is only one sober truth: China will not change until the CCP collapses.

That is not despair—it is clarity.As an independent platform for free thought, In Opposition must continue exposing these truths and urging overseas Chinese to think critically, beyond rumor and fantasy.